We preview the runners for the 2012 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham and take a look at the betting which indicates that Big Buck’s is once again the one to beat in this intriguing trip over three miles.
2012 Cleeve Hurdle, Cheltenham – Runners:
1111-11 – Big Buck’s (FR) – P F Nicholls
214-545 – Cross Kennon (IRE) – Jennie Candlish A O’keeffe
13-2422 – Mourad (IRE) – W P Mullins
30-1323 – Restless Harry – R Dickin
3216-14 – Dynaste (FR) – D Pipe
0-00242 – Across The Bay (IRE) – D McCain Jnr
36-0222 – Five Dream (FR) – P F Nicholls
F/11-2F4 – Hard To Swallow (IRE) – M Keighley
00-5022 – Kayf Aramis – N A Twiston-Davies
U1-31U – Oscargo (IRE) – P F Nicholls
2-006P0 – Whatuthink (IRE) – Oliver McKiernan
Jack Nicklaus has eighteen, Roger Federer has sixteen, Big Buck’s has fourteen. Admittedly, beating Souffleur or Duc de Regniere on the bridle hardly ranks alongside wearing down Tom Watson on a blustery links or extinguishing the raging fire of Rafael Nadal on Centre Court, but Big Buck’s record of consecutive hurdles wins is still a unique sporting achievement. He goes for fifteen in the 2012 Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday, and quite frankly there’s nothing that can stop him barring a mishap or an acute return to his old lethargic ways.
Ever since returning to hurdles following a last-fence mishap when a close third in the Hennessy (with hindsight, I suspect he would have won), Big Bucks’ has seen off wave after wave of challengers, most of whom have made the opposite switch to chasing with mixed degrees of success. He has, however, won the official trial for the World Hurdle only once, back in 2008 when his winning streak stood at a measly one and he was second favourite to the odds-on Punchestown (remember him?). Big Buck’s belated return to the Cleeve jacks up the quality of the race, but takes some of the sting out of it as a betting medium.
Nevertheless, the prospect of two places to aim at behind Big Buck’s makes the Cleeve of some appeal. Five Dream and Restless Harry have filled the places behind the three-time champion at various stages, but the presence of both Mourad and Dynaste probably take that pair out of the equation to all intents and purposes.
It’s quite easy to know where we stand with Mourad. He’s been a fixture in staying hurdles races for the best part of two years, in which time he’s battered the second tier of staying hurdlers and come up short against the best. He’ll be exactly a year without a win come Saturday, but in that time only Big Buck’s, Grands Crus, Quevega and Voler La Vedette have beaten him in Britain and Ireland, so it’s not difficult to imagine him taking minor honours this time around.
As a second-season hurdler, Dynaste is far more difficult to get a handle on. He took the Grands Crus route of winning a good handicap at Haydock on Betfair Chase day before stepping up in grade. He was pitched in against Big Buck’s in the Long Walk at Ascot, though any chance of gauging him against the champion was removed by an aggressive ride which left Dynaste out on his feet in the straight. The only real clue we have to any latent ability in Dynaste is that, for a handful of strides about half a mile out, he appeared to have Big Buck’s in trouble.
Verdict:
It’s probably tactical considerations that will settle things between Mourad and Dynaste. The latter probably has the greater potential, but another aggressive ride like he received at Ascot and he’ll be fortunate to beat the ambulance home; still, the Pipe team are more aware than most and I’d take the chance on them getting the tactics right this time. Don’t bother looking for an alternative in the win-only market, though; Nicklaus and Federer might have stalled- the former permanently, the latter possibly not- but you can bank on the monstrous winning streak of Big Buck’s rolling on this Saturday.
