
We look forward to this weekend’s epic FA Cup 4th round clash at Anfield, as Premier League champions Man United travel to Merseyside for a battle with arch rivals Liverpool and give our top tips on which betting market offers the greatest value.
Liverpool v Man United – FA Cup Tips:
Man Utd to win 1-0 @ 7/1
Dany Welbeck to score anytime @ 2/1
Match Betting:
Liverpool – 6/4
Draw – 9/4
Man United – 7/4
First Goalscorer Betting:
Bellamy – 6/1
Carroll -13/2
Gerrard – 7/1
Rooney – 9/2
Welbeck – 6/1
Hernandez – 6/1
The one thing that stands out about this weekend’s 4th Round FA Cup match at Anfield is that the betting is split right down the middle. Just like the pundits, the bookies don’t seem to have a clue which side will triumph in this battle of age-old rivals. Hosts Liverpool are 6/4 for the win, Man United are 7/4 while the draw is available at 9/4.
In the FA Cup to date, the records show that Man United edge the battle with 11 wins out of the 18 meetings, while Liverpool have 7 wins from their encounters with the Red Devils. In the last five head-to-head encounters, Man United have won five times including a 2-1, 3-2 and 1-0 victory. Funnily enough the stats seem to indicate that home advantage means everything with the victories for both sides coming at home.
So turning our attention to present form, what can we tell about this weekend’s match? Man United will have taken bags of confidence from their away win against Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend and the memory of defeat at home to Blackburn can begin to disintegrate. Liverpool have found it hard to establish consistency in the league once again this year but one thing that Kenny Dalglish can boast about is his record against the top four.
With two wins over Chelsea, a draw with Man Utd, a win over Man City and a win over Arsenal, Liverpool can definitely mix it up with the best in the Premier League. However, the Reds evidently have problems coping with the weaker teams in the league, whether this is a mental or tactical problem, only Dalglish will know.
So with previous meetings between these two clubs suggesting that home advantage could swing the tie, let’s examine the away form of Man United to see if they can turn around the trend. Strangely enough, unlike last season, Man United’s home/away form in the Premier League is almost identical with 8 wins home and away.
Taking United’s away form alone would leave the Red Devils four points ahead in the Premier League will rivals Man City in second. If we reverse the stats and take Liverpool’s home form alone, that would leave the Kenny Dalglish’s men 8th in the table behind Swansea, Newcastle and Chelsea to name a few.
So the stats seem to be stacking up against the home side from what we’ve seen so far but with Liverpool having shown great form in cup competitions, these stats could stand for nothing. The value in this game may not be on the match betting market, but where does it lie?
In two out of the last three meetings between these two sides, only one goal has been scored and considering the defensive form of both clubs in the Premier League, this could be another low-scoring game. A total of ‘Under 2.5’ goals seems like a really valuable bet at odds of 4/5 but if you’re willing to take a bigger chance that why not try ‘Under 1.5’ goals at decent odds of 15/8.
There’s also some value to be had on the ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market, with a number of strikers in form at the moment. Danny Welbeck has scored in his last three games for Man Utd and has represented the biggest threat in the Red Devils starting eleven. The young striker is available at odds of 2/1 to score anytime and if you’re willing to take a little more risk, he’s priced at 6/1 to score the first goal of Saturday’s game.
Another great bet in this encounter is Gerrard to find the net once again against United. Last October, the Liverpool captain popped up to stun the Old Trafford crowd and take the lead against Man United. Gerrard is 7/1 to score first in this game or 23/10 to score anytime. Having scored against Man City in the Carling Cup, there’s no doubt that Gerrard scores in the most important matches and this match couldn’t get any more important!
Despite the close nature of this match, I would disregard the draw with just one in the last five meetings between these two clubs ending in deadlock. The records seem to suggest that one of these massive clubs will face the boot from the FA Cup this weekend.
With Man United’s good away form and Liverpool’s mediocre home form, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see the Kop silenced on Saturday. Man Utd to win at odds of 7/4 seems like the most inevitable outcome but the value to the normal punter here is minimal. A low scoring game with the away win would point to Man Utd to win 1-0 at attractive odds of 7/1, while Man Utd to win 2-1 at 9/1 also warrants some interest.



