Seeley’s Selections – Ipswich v Norwich

It’s the most eagerly anticipated game of all the play-off semi-final first legs on Saturday when Ipswich entertain local rivals Norwich at Portman Road.

This game promises to be a classic, but with so much at stake and tensions running high I don’t believe it will live up to the expectation.

As we have already seen from the opening first legs this week they are usually very tepid affairs; nerves play a big part with the prize so big and there isn’t a bigger prize than a place in the Premier League next season.

Norwich are BoyleSports favourites at 29/20 and that might surprise a few, but they did finish eight points above their East Anglian rivals; they also did the double over them this season.

But this is the play-offs and all that form goes out the window.

Ipswich arrive in this position pretty much unexpectedly and, of the two, they come into this match with arguably the better form: just one defeat in their last nine Championship matches.

Many will look at the 11/5 (and the money has come for them) on offer with BoyleSports; I think that’s too big, especially with home advantage, but I’m not 100% convinced, either.

The big problem for The Tractor Boys is that they have an awful recent record in this fixture.

They’ve now lost their last four matches against their arch-rivals and mentally that’s a problem.

There current run is their worst EVER against Norwich and they have also suffered some heavy
defeats in that period. Mick McCarthy’s side just can’t afford any slip-ups in this one.

The first bet I like is an obvious one, but a good one.

I just can’t see both teams going for it, not just yet anyway, and the game to feature under 2.5 goals at 4/6 with BoyleSports is a decent wager.

I know I keep repeating myself in all these play-off matches, but the strategy is a simple one: just play under the goals and back the draw in the first legs of all the semi-finals and I’m sure you will make money. It’s been a very profitable one over the last five years and I’m not changing my view today..

The draw is 23/10 with BoyleSports and it does look the most likely option, a result which will keep the tie alive and with it all to play for at Carrow Road next week.

I’m confident that the Canaries will score, though, despite the loss of Lewis Grabban who has netted in both games against the Tractor Boys this season, but without him, one is the maximum they will get, I reckon.

I like the game to finish 1-1, which is 5/1 with BoyleSports, and if you are backing a first goalscorer, well it’s just impossible to look past Ipswich’s Daryl Murphy.

Murphy has scored more opening goals than any other player in the Championship this season: 11 times, and he’s 6/1 with BoyleSports again to make that 12 in the biggest game of the season so far.

Seeley’s Selections:
Draw @ 23/10
Correct Score 1-1 @ 5/1
Daryl Murphy First Goalscorer @ 6/1

B Lucky.
Nigel