Strachan-Inspired Scots To Keep Germans At Bay

We preview the Euro 2016 qualifier between Scotland and world champions Germany and see if Gordan Strachan’s plucky squad can cause an upset.

Form
Will Germany suffer a World Cup hangover? If the midweek defeat to Argentina is anything to go by then they answer is most certainly. Argentina and Angle Di Maria picked apart a defence that had looked so assured throughout the summer in Brazil with ease on Wednesday night.

The new Manchester United signing provided three assists and scored one himself as Germany slipped to a 4-0 deficit before scoring a couple of their own through André Schürrle and Mario Götze. This was not the “welcome home, die Weltmeister” that it had been billed as. But then again, this was only a friendly and even the world champions are allowed off days in such circumstances.

Prior to Wednesday Joachim Löw’s men had gone 18 games undefeated, lost just one of their previous 28 and haven’t lost a competitive match since the semi-finals of Euro 2012. Germany also haven’t lost an international qualifier (for either the World Cup or European Championships) since October 2007.

Scotland meanwhile continue to go from strength to strength under Gordon Strachan and arrive in Dortmund on the back of their own six-game unbeaten run.

Most recently a 2-2 draw against Nigeria at Craven Cottage somewhat flattered the Africans, who then went on to perform well at the World Cup. Prior to the friendly fixture the Scots had kept four consecutive clean sheets including a 2-0 win against Croatia and goalless draw with the USA, both of whom also impressed in Brazil.

Team News
Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker and Miroslav Klose have all retired since the World Cup and are replaced by Antonio Rüdiger, Matthias Ginter and Marco Reus in the German squad. Löw commented before the Argentina game that there were a few burnout issues among his squad with just five weeks between the end of the World Cup and the start of the Bundesliga.

Defenders Christophe Berra and Andy Robertson and midfielder Graham Dorrans have all pulled out of the Scotland squad since it was announced, while both Scott Brown and Robert Snodgrass are unavailable due to injury. Aberdeen’s Mark Reynolds has been drafted into the squad.

Head-to-Head

The recent record between Scotland and Germany reads as one win, one loss and one draw.

EuroEr Germany won the most recent meeting 2-1 way back in September 2003 in qualification for Euro 2004, while the game at Hampden in that same campaign ended 1-1. Scotland won 1-0 in the previous encounter in a friendly in Bremen in 1999.

Recommended Bets
Germany are understandably made massive favourites here at odds of 2/13, but there is scope for an improving Scotland side to cause some sort of upset. Whether that can come in the form of a win I’m not so sure, but I feel there is value in siding with Scotland-Draw in the Double Chance market at odds of 17/4. If you do fancy Strachan’s men to take all three points then you can back them at a massive 14/1.

If there is to be an upset then I fancy it will have to be a low-scoring one. 0-0 and 1-1 draws can be backed at odds of 18/1 and 12/1 respectively, while the 1-0 win in favour of the visitors is available to back at odds of 33/1. I also like the look of the 2/1 odds available on there being fewer than 2.5 goals scored in the match.