Geoff_Chaucer

Your Bets Are A Flight Risk For Amethyst Stakes

Sunday’s Group 3 Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown (2.40) is a race which has been dominated by Dermot Weld in recent times, but with no runner representing the yard this time around, this lucrative prize is up for grabs!

Sruthan To Strip Fitter?

One who will be seeking to land a third Group 3 prize is the 5yo, Sruthan, who won the second of those races at the Curragh last spring (7f, yielding), and showed he was set for another good season when a 4l fourth to Flight Risk in the same race last month. Sruthan is expected to strip fitter for that return, and has a 3lb turnaround in the weights with Flight Risk.

It’s also worth noting that Sruthan is rated 110, which has been a good omen in the Amethyst down the years, as the classier runners prevailed…

Trends Summary

Of the last 10 Amethyst winners…

10 ran in a Pattern race last time
9 returned 8/1 or shorter – 6 were favourites
9 were officially rated 108 or higher (36%) – others were 1-37 (3%)
8 were 3-5yo’s
8 made the top four last time

Flight’s Penalty A Slight Risk

The Group penalty Jim Bolger’s last time out winner, Flight Risk, has to carry, doesn’t make life easy, but he did show a career best in battling to beat Piri Wango by over 1l in that Group 3 at the Curragh last month over 7f (yielding).

Rated 109, this 4yo is improving and is capable of making more improvement, and was a 1m winner in soft ground last October.

Piri Wango also has a 3lb pull in the weights with Flight Risk, and this return to 1m over which he is a dual winner, may see him get nearer on Sunday.

Geoffrey Needs To Bounce Back

With the classy runners historically coming to the fore in the Amethyst, then Aidan O’Brien’s lightly raced 4yo in Geoffrey Chaucer (rated 109), a Group 2 winning juvenile, who was 3l behind Fascinating Rock at this meeting 12 months ago. Well beaten in three subsequent outings, he will need to show more if figuring; has now been beaten 22l, 64l and 90l in his last three outings.

Elsewhere, Tommy Stack’s Lincolnshire winner, Onenightidreamed (rated 100), takes a step up into Group company, and is another 4yo who could improve to make the frame having had just four outings.

William Knight’s sends over the 6yo, Fire Ship, though he just falls short on ratings off 105. He has the ability, having won a French Group 3 over 1m (good to soft) in 2013, but has been winless in 10 outings since.

Recommended Bets

A really fascinating renewal, with a mix of experienced heads and improving youngsters – one of which is Flight Risk, who impressed last month and has a penalty to carry for that, but that didn’t stop six of the last 10 winners of this race.




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