Stoute’s Horse ‘Integral’ To Falmouth Stakes

Group 1 action hits the Newmarket July Course on Friday courtesy of the Falmouth Stakes (2.40), bringing together a wealth of female talent set to do battle over a mile.

Royal Ascot Form
Currently heading the betting is Sir Michael Stoute’s, Integral (13/8), who arrives in top form having won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last time by 2l (1m, good to firm), beating Purr Along (12/1) a total of 4l, and Sky Lantern (2/1) almost 6l – for the record, 16 of the last 18 Falmouth winners arrived via Royal Ascot or France.

That career best effort demonstrated that Integral is very much on an upward curve, and her progress has clearly not halted yet.

While this mission represents a step back up in class, her dam, Echelon, was a Group 1 winner, and Integral looks set to follow suit.

On Integral’s last foray into a Group 1 nine months ago, she had to settle for second best when beaten 1l by Sky Lantern, and with score now standing at 1-1 between the pair, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in this decider.

Connections of Sky Lantern reported their filly would improve for her reappearance at Ascot last month, and the fact she has been supported into 2/1 and was beaten just 1/4l in this race last year suggests she won’t be far away.

Contenders
Recent history of the Falmouth suggests it could pay not to look at outsiders, as 17 of the last 18 returned 10/1 or shorter, and while all eyes will be on the front two in the market, punters shouldn’t dismiss the chances of Clive Brittain’s, Rizeena (9/2).

This classy filly represents terrific value for an improver who lines-up having won the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last month (1m, good to firm) where Kiyoshi (16/1) was beaten 4l.

That victory was Rizeena’s second Group 1 success, in the process gaining compensation for a disappointing seasonal return in the 1,000 Guineas when only seventh.

It may have been that she simply needed that outing that day, though only Music Show was the first Falmouth winner to have run in the 1,000 Guineas during the last 20 years. On a more positive note, however, Clive Brittain did win this race with Rajeem in 2006.

Elsewhere, Aidan O’Brien sends over Peace Burg (25/1), who was a Group 2 winner last term but gives the impression she has been held at the highest level, including when beaten 6l by Integral at Ascot. Godolphin’s Certify was also well held when 15l behind Integral, and while a Group 1 winner in 2012, she has a bit to prove.

Trends
Of the last 18 Falmouth winners…

17 ran during the last two months.
17 ran over 1m or further last time.
16 were 3-4yo’s – one of the older winners was the dual victor Soviet Song.
Simply Perfect was the first filly for over 25 years to arrive via the Oaks.
15 were British or Irish-bred.
15 won in Pattern class – the exceptions were placed.
Trainer James Fanshawe leads the way with three winners, while John Gosden won twice.

Recommended Bets
Sky Lantern is entitled to get closer to Integral following their Ascot clash, but it’s hard to ignore the latter who won quite snugly and has more to come.