Angus ‘Statto’ Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
The bookies were celebrating last weekend with all 4 televised live Premier League games ending in draws.
Stoke v Man City, Saturday 12.45pm, BT Sport 1
Man City will be regarded as good things at 8/13 in this weekends opening match on Saturday but Stoke have managed to draw 5 of last six at home to City, the exception being City’s emphatic 4/1 win here in February.
On that basis 11/4 is over the odds and the value is on a draw here. Kevin De Bruyne is in great form at present and 7/5 on the Belgian to score at anytime looks generous.
Saturday 3pm Kick Offs
In the Saturday afternoon 3pm matches I expect Sunderland to park the bus against Arsenal. It is 13/1 on 0-0 at The Emirates and this fixture is usually either dominated by Arsenal, or finishes 0-0 which has occurred 4 times more than Arsenal’s fixtures against any other team.
That said Sam Allardyce has done a great job so far at Sunderland but will not need to be reminded he has lost his last 7 matches against The Gunners.
No team has ever won away at Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City and Man United in the same season but West Ham are 6/1 to make that history, although they have lost on their last 7 visits to Old Trafford. Those that do not fancy taking the 4/9 on a United win may prefer 5/4 on the home side to win to nil.
Watford face Norwich at Vicarage Road in a fixture where both sides have scored in 9 of their last 10 meetings. It is 5/6 that happens again while Watford have found the 2nd half of matches a struggle this season and Evens on the 2nd half producing the most goals is a great bet here.
Jamie Vardy is the man of the moment in the Premier League after netting again against Manchester United last weekend. He is 11/10 to keep the run going at Swansea where the home side have won this fixture to nil in the last 3 meetings. A repeat of that is 19/4 with both sides 13/8 and the Draw the 23/10 outsider in a hard match to call.
Southampton against Aston Villa has amassed 22 goals in 4 meetings including the 6-1 win for The Saints last season. 12/5 on 4 or more goals here will be popular while Saints backers will like 21/20 on in form Shane Long to score at anytime.
Tottenham are unbeaten since their opening day defeat at Old Trafford and if they avoid defeat at WBA will extend their run to 14, something they haven’t done since March 1985 in the top flight. They will be well backed at 5/6 to win at The Hawthorns and the in-form Harry Kane is sure to be popular at 23/20 to score at anytime.
Chelsea v Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30pm, Sky Sports 1
Chelsea appear to be back on track and it will be a major shock if they fail to beat Bournemouth on Saturday 5.30 live on Sky.
They have an amazing record at home against newly promoted teams, winning 37 of the last 43 and drawing the others. Despite The Cherries winning 4 of their last 5 trips to London a home win looks the most likely outcome.
Bournemouth have been fast starters this season and 8/1 on Chelsea to come from behind and win is tempting as is the first goal to come before 27th minute at 10/11.
Newcastle United v Liverpool, Sunday 4.00pm, Sky Sports 1
The big players will be preparing to unload on Sunday with Liverpool 8/13 to win at Newcastle and although on paper it looks a good thing, 4/1 on the Geordies will still be taken.
No regular Premier League fixture has produced the goals like this one with 132 netted in 42 Premier League meetings.
2/1 on 4 goals or more on Sunday looks a great bet certainly for the neutral. Jurgen Klopp got the better of Steve McClaren twice with Dortmund over Wolfsburg in 2011 2-0 and 3-0 and the 3-0 scoreline on Sunday in Liverpool’s favour will be popular at 12/1.
Everton v Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, Sky Sports 1
Everton face Crystal Palace on Monday and are unbeaten in their last 15 Monday night matches. Despite Alan Pardew having won 10 of his 14 away matches as Crystal Palace boss, Everton will be popular at Evens to continue their great run which should have been 2 points better but for last weekend’s remarkable 3-3 at Bournemouth.
Romelu Lukaku is the player on song for the Toffees and he is 7/5 to score at anytime. 8/1 to net twice and 40/1 for the hat –trick, all worth considering in his current form.
*Prices correct at time of publication.