Angus “Statto” Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
With 30 Premier League Matches played so far this season the most amazing stat is that only six have been won by the home team.
Newcastle v Arsenal
That looks like being extended to 31 when Newcastle entertain Arsenal in this week’s opening offering at 12:45 on Saturday, with Arsenal having won seven of their last eight against the Geordies, who have only one win in last 14 Premier League matches.
With Arsenal at cramped odds of 11/20 their chances are reflected in the price, but when you consider three of the last four Gunners’ victories have been Arsenal victories by exactly one goal the price on that outcome looks very reasonable at 13/5.
Newcastle managed a great result against Manchester United last weekend, holding the Red Devils to a 0-0 draw.
A similar scoreline is certainly worth a saver here at an attractive 11/1 as it is a game neither will want to lose.
Tottenham v Everton
Tottenham have played far better in their opening three games than their two point haul suggests, having thrown away a two goal lead at home to Stoke and conceding late having just gone in front at Leicester.
Harry Kane is yet to score this season but netted his 21st goal of last season against Everton and looks value at 21/20 to score anytime.
This is a slightly bigger price than Spurs are to win the game. In 23 meetings in the Premier League at White Hart Lane, Tottenham have won 14 with six draws and three wins for Everton.
I expect a home win here in a match which could have plenty of goals, with Everton having scored ten away goals in their last 5 Premier League matches.
A Tottenham win and both teams to score looks over the odds here at 14/5.
Southampton v Norwich
Norwich City look overpriced at Southampton, who look a shadow of the side they were last season.
The Canaries have netted in all three games so far and will not go to St Mary’s to sit back.
The bet here is 4/5 on both teams to score, or for those wanting a bigger price Norwich to win at 29/10.
The Europa League qualifiers may have taken their toll on Southampton who have also lost several key players from last season.
Swansea City v Manchester United
The confidence Wayne Rooney will have got in scoring his first hat trick in four years, and his first United goal in 878 minutes, cannot be overestimated and the 19/10 to score at anytime at the Liberty Stadium looks the weekend’s best wager.
United have not been at their best so far this season and lost home and away to The Swans last season, but at 6/5 cannot go unbacked in this weekend’s Sky Super Sunday clash at 4pm.
I also like 14/5 on United to win and 3 or more goals in the match as I think this is certain to be a more open game than they have had in their opening 3 Premier League Fixtures..
The bookies will be bracing themselves for some big trebles this weekend on three short price teams – Chelsea to beat Palace,Liverpool to beat West Ham and Man City to beat Watford at 1/3,1/3 and 1/5 respectively. This means you are getting 34/30 you money, which is slightly better than 11/10 a price more familiar to seasoned punters, but put like that it is a price I would much rather back than lay!
Aston Villa have really struggled in front of goal in the league recently, netting only twice, and have not managed more than a single goal in their last seven Premier League Matches. The 7/10 on 2 or less goals in Saturday’s encounter with Sunderland will be a popular bet as Sunderland have also made a slow start.
*Prices correct at time of publication.