AT&T Byron Nelson Golf Betting Tips From Steve Palmer

Prolific Racing Post tipster Steve Palmer has joined BoyleSports on golf tipping show The Sweet Spot to pick out his fancies for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson on the PGA Tour.

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The TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas is a 7,468 yards par 72, with four par 5s and one reachable par 4.

It made its PGA Tour debut last year and -25 was the winning score. The fairways are wide and welcoming with zoysia grass which gives you springy lies. Four hot and sunny days are forecast with light to moderate breezes, so the big hitters have got a playground here.

The Favourites

Scottie Scheffler (8/1) is the favourite in the betting, but I don’t think he’s quite ready to hit the heights again.

The Masters was such a massive moment for him, he’s had so much on his plate. I’m not sure he’s given himself enough time to get over it and he was poor for three of the four rounds at the Zurich Classic.


He should get something from playing in his home state this week, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to get his juices flowing until major competition comes around again next week.

Justin Thomas (9/1) meanwhile is winless for 14 months.

Headline Tip

Sam Burns (14/1) was runner-up here last year and he finished second in the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Billy Horschel. The partnership didn’t hole any long putts, but they were swinging great and Horschel couldn’t stop himself gushing over how good his playing partner is.

Burns is number 10 in the world now, but he’s not going to stop there – this is a potential world number 1. He’s only 25 and has won three times in the space of a year, he’s got current form, course form and is hungry for more silverware.

I don’t know what’s not to like about Burns this week, he’s even got a bit of zoysia grass form having finished second at TPC Southwind last year.

Next Best

Will Zalatoris is 18/1 with BoyleSports offering ten places. He’s Dallas based and he says he has played TPC Craig Ranch at least 100 times. He’s ultra-comfortable at this track and many players coming in this week will have played it zero times.

Like Burns, he’s got the power to take it apart and he’s oozing form. He beat Viktor Hovland on his way to the quarter-finals of the WGC Matchplay, he finished 6th in The Masters and 4th in the Zurich Classic last time out alongside Davis Riley.

He was 17th in this event last year and -10 on the weekend. I think he’ll start faster this year and give us a real title challenge. He was 8th on the zoysia at TPC Southwind last year. There’s no getting away from the fact he’s not a great putter, but he’s an astonishingly good ball-striker and we have to give him a go at somewhere he’s so comfortable.


Cameron Champ (33/1) finished 6th last time out at the Mexico Open which followed 10th place at The Masters, where he was 2nd for greens in regulation. He is clearly over the wrist injury that was holding him back for months.

He’s playing in his adoptive home state this month as he lives in Houston now and he’s playing a course this week that sets up wonderfully for him. He was 55th here last year but was badly out of form, I expect much better this time.


Another Dallas resident is Davis Riley (40/1), who used to live with Will Zalatoris. They are great buddies and finished 4th together at the Zurich Classic. Riley followed up with 5th at the Mexico Open and this week’s course is probably an even better set-up for him.

Sepp Straka (50/1) has been a little forgotten in this market for me as he’s been in red-hot form. He won the Honda Classic at the end of February, was 9th at Sawgrass, 30th on his Masters debut and 3rd in the RBC Heritage.

He missed the cut at the Wells Fargo last week, but this week’s track is a much better fit for him. He had four solid rounds for 26th here last year and he’s 103 places better off in the world rankings this time, which shows you how well he’s been playing and crucially, he’s a PGA Tour champion.

Sam Burns – 14/1
Will Zalatoris – 18/1
Cameron Champ – 33/1
Davis Riley – 40/1
Sepp Straka – 50/1

*Prices correct at time of publication.

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More about the author

Steve has been a Racing Post columnist, golf tipster and punter and is one of the most well-known tipsters in the country.