Caid Du Berlais

Byrne Group Plate Tips – Day 3 – Cheltenham 2015

Byrne Group Plate

Outright Betting

Day three of the festival is a cracker for handicaps, including the Festival Plate over 2m5f (4.00), which provides an ideal opportunity for finding a big priced winner – after all, nine of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or bigger.

One of the most interesting angles surrounding this handicap – and a handy pointer for backers – concerns the trainers, as only three supplied eight of the last 10 winners between them…

Trends Summary

Of the last 10 BA & MS Plate winners…

10 had raced at Cheltenham
9 were 17/2 or bigger
9 were non-favourites
9 were officially rated 140 or lower
9 made the top three during their last three runs
9 had three or more handicap chase runs
9 ran in a handicap last time
8 carried 10st10lb or lower
8 ran during the last 45 days
D Pipe & V Williams won it three times each, N Henderson twice

Pipe Back For More
The first trainer whose runners need inspection is David Pipe, who has the current 8/1 favourite, Monetaire, in off a nice weight of 10st9lb. This ex-French winner (runner-up in a Grade 3 there), made a good debut here when third in a decent handicap chase in November (2m, soft), before a career best win in another good handicap at Newbury a few weeks later (2m1f, soft). Twice a runner-up in France over this kind of trip, he has a good profile, and only the forecast faster ground is a slight concern.

If the fastest ground Monetaire has encountered does prove a problem, then Nicky Henderson could be on hand to take advantage with the likes of Rajdhani Express (16/1) and Hunt Ball (16/1). Both have work to do off big weights, however, which has proven hard in this race, but of the pair preference is for Rajdhani Express, whose handicap mark has slipped of late, and who won the novices’ handicap at this meeting two years ago.

Victory For Venetia?
Venetia Williams is also represented once more via Tango De Juilley (20/1) and Cold March (33/1), where the former boasts solid credentials having recorded a career best in winning a novice at Huntingdon last time (2m, soft). Faster ground is a little unknown, but he did finish second over the trip in a handicap two months ago.

Buywise To Lift Prize?
Elsewhere, Evan Williams’, Buywise, will have his supporters having won three of his last four races, including over this trip on good ground.

He was also fifth in the valuable Paddy Power Gold Cup over C&D in December, staying on well to finish 3l behind the winner, Caid Du Berlais (12/1).

Paul Nicholls’, Caid Du Berlais, is respected, but may have used up his handicap mark for the season, as he was last seen finishing third in a similar race over C&D back here in January (good to soft). Another 3lb hike makes life hard from a biggish weight.

Ace In The Pack
Kim Bailey’s, Un Ace (10/1), has a slightly better weight of 11st1lb, and won a couple of novices over this sort of trip in November prior to a creditable second over C&D last time (good to soft). He was 10lb wrong at the weight that day, and found the ground a bit tacky, so better can be expected on this surface.

Finally, Camping Ground (14/1) won a nice handicap at Warwick (2m4f, soft) last month and arrives in good form following a good hurdles fourth on Saturday.

Recommended Bets
Experienced handicappers have held the call in this race, and one who has such form is Buywise, whose jumping isn’t fluent, but that didn’t stop him winning a C&D handicap two outings ago. He is improving and will like the ground.