Classy Golden Horn To Complete Derby Dream

Epsom Derby

Outright Betting

For many, the Derby is quite simply “the race” of the year, and one punters may feel they have a chance in finding the winner, as each of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter.

If those trends continue, then it may well be that the 2015 winner will come from the following group of: Golden Horn (6/4), Jack Hobbs (9/2), Giovanni Canaletto (7/1) and Elm Park (7/1).

Horn To Hit Gold?
It’s a line-up that will have punters frothing at the mouth, and if the betting is to be believed, then John Gosden’s Golden Horn could be crowned No.1 come Saturday teatime.

Unbeaten in three outings, this colt showed his class when beating stablemate Jack Hobbs, almost 3l in the Group 2 Dante at York last month (1m2f, good), which has proven a reliable pointer for the Derby down the years; Elm Park was a further 3l back in third.

The fact Frankie Dettori has got the ride on Golden Horn adds further attraction for punters, though William Buick – who was on Golden Horn at York – takes the ride on Jack Hobbs. Both runners are respected, and are officially rated higher than 108, which has been the benchmark in recent times…

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Derby winners…

10 returned 8/1 or shorter
10 were Irish or British-bred
9 won 46% or more of their career runs
9 were officially rated 108 or more
9 were drawn in stalls 3-12
8 stepped up in trip by 1.5f or more
8 ran once or less during the last three months
8 ran in a Group 1/Group 2 race last time
8 made the top two last time
A O’Brien won it three times

Ballydoyle Launch Trio Of Talent
With Aidan O’Brien winning the race three times, though, his battalion of Giovanni Canaletto (7/1), Hans Holbein (16/1) and Kilimanjaro (16/1), cannot be overlooked. It is the former who has been backed, following a 1/4l second in a Group 3 at the Curragh (1m2f, good), where he finished powerfully. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro have done little wrong having won Group Derby trials, but both may want some rain.

Surprise Success For Condon?
But, for backers seeking an each-way punt at big odds, then Kevin Condon’s Success Days (16/1) is improving fast, as was seen when making it three on the spin this spring in winning a Group 3 last month (1m2f, soft). Considering he is rated only 1lb behind Golden Horn on 117, he looks value, even if the faster ground may not be ideal.

Another big price is Willie Haggas’ Storm The Stars (16/1) who improved to win a Listed Derby Trial at Goodwood last month (1m3f, good), having previously been 2l second to Hans Holbein at Chester. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he made the frame.

Then there is the French raider, Epicuris (16/1), who has already won a Group 1 over 1m2f last year, prior to reappearance second in Group 3 company. Having won on good ground, conditions should be fine, and he remains the dark horse.

Recommended Bets
All eyes will be on Epsom come 4.30pm, where Golden Horn will bid to follow-up his impressive win in the Dante. Unbeaten and supplemented for the race, he oozes class and must go close if staying the trip.