Covert Love_Horse Racing

A Covert Mission For Yorkshire Oaks

Yorkshire Oaks

Outright Betting

The females take centre stage on day two of the York Ebor meeting when a wealth of talent lines-up for Thursday’s Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks (3.40).

One thing punters should take note of prior to placing their bets is that not many shocks have taken place down the years, with each of the last 10 Yorkshire Oaks winners returned 8/1 or shorter…

Trends Summary

Of the last 10 Oaks winners…

10 returned 8/1 or shorter
10 were officially rated 112 or had no rating (Irish-trained)
8 ran in a Group 1 last time
8 were beaten no further than a neck last time
7 were Group 1 winners (7-17) – others were 3-55
A O’Brien won it three times

Covert Plans Second Oaks

Another key trend shows the good record of those who arrived via Group 1 company last time, pointing up the likes of Hugo Palmer’s, Covert Love (3/1), who won the Irish Oaks at the Curragh last month (1m4f, good).

Having tracked the lead that day, Covert Love hit the front a furlong out to hold off Jessica Harrington’s, Jack Naylor (6/1), almost 2l.

That victory made it 4-4 for Covert Love this year (only defeat came as a juvenile), and the progress she showed could make her hard to pass at York, though it’s possible Jack Naylor may have been given too much to do from behind that day, as was David Wachman’s third, Curvy (9/2), who was a head behind Jack Naylor.

Dubai To York For Lady

For those who like to follow formlines, however, then Luca Cumani’s 3yo, Lady Of Dubai (7/1), has to rate value having finished almost 3l ahead of Jack Naylor when third in the Oaks at Epsom (1m4f, good). Although only sixth in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood three weeks ago (1m2f, good to firm), she didn’t get the smoothest of runs before making late gains.

The step back up to 1m4f on a more galloping track will be more to Lady Of Dubai’s liking, and she has already attracted each-way support.

Also on 6/1 is Jim Bolger’s 3yo, Pleascach, who won the Irish 1,000 Guineas, prior to a 1l second to Curvy at Royal Ascot (1m4f, good to firm). The only concern has to be a lacklustre fifth in the Pretty Polly last time (1m2f), and she’ll need to bounce back if reversing form with Curvy.

Each-Way Value

As for those at double-figure odds, then Sir Michael Stoute’s 3yo, Crystal Zvezda (12/1) put her Oaks flop behind her when beaten just under 3l in a Listed event here last month (1m2f, good to firm), while Francois Doumen sends over his 3yo, Sea Calisi (12/1), winner of a Group 2 back home in June (1m4f, good). Sea Calisi is unproven on fast ground, but could have more to come following just four outings.

A mention also goes to Aidan O’Brien’s pair, Easter (14/1) and Outstanding (20/1), with the former a close third in a Group 3 over this trip before winning a Listed event. She remains in cracking form this month and could make the frame.

Recommended Bets

An open affair in which the first three from the Irish Oaks renew rivalry. Covert Love finished in front that day, and can emerge on top once more, especially as previous Group 1 winners boast such a high strike-rate in this race.