Angus ‘Statto’ Loughran – Premier League Analysis & Tips
Four more live Premier League matches this weekend through until Monday and although the first goalscorer betting has been favourable to the punters recently, there’s only been one winning favourite in the last 12 top flight live matches over the last 3 weeks; Arsenal against Villa last weekend.
Everton v Leicester, Saturday, 3pm
It has been an amazing run for the bookies. No one could have predicted Leicester City would be top at Christmas but a win at Everton on Saturday and they will be! They are only 18/1 for the title and in the last 5 years, only Liverpool in 2013/14, whom led the table on Christmas Day, have not gone on to win League! I fancied Leicester for relegation but they are not leading the table by fluke.
All credit to them they are top on merit. No fixture played more than 5 times has produced more draws than Everton v Leicester in the Premier League – an incredible 72%, 13 from 18 yet the draw is the biggest price of the 3 results this weekend at 13/5 and looks a real value play here.
Lukaku has been on fire for Everton and has scored in his last 7 in all competitions and will be popular at 21/10 to net again against the League leaders.
Chelsea v Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
If Leicester being top is a surprise then Chelsea being just above the relegation zone is a seismic one although 80/1 on the champions being relegated has been supported this week since defeat by Leicester on Monday. Surely it won’t end up that way for The Blues!
Chelsea are 3/10 to get back to winning ways against Sunderland this weekend and have only lost 2 of their 21 Premier League matches against the North East side. Although, in the last 5, the team scoring first has lost on 4 of the 5 occasions with the other ending up 0-0. Chelsea are 19/2 to win from behind with Sunderland 40/1!
Ex Newcastle player Loic Remy has a great record against Sunderland and will be popular at 6/5 to score at anytime despite netting 3 times in his last 4 matches against The Mackems.
Man United v Norwich, Saturday, 3pm
Manchester United are being slaughtered by both the Media and their fans after a dreadful week when they went out of Champions League and lost to Bournemouth. It is amazing Old Trafford is the stadium which has seen the fewest goals this season, only 10, yet United are in 4th place in the league and only 8\1 win the title!
They have kept 6 clean sheets in last 7 at home and those that don’t fancy taking the 4/9 on a straight win on Saturday may prefer the 6/5 on United to beat Norwich whom have only won 1 in last 19 on the road to nil. Juan Mata has 4 goals in his last 6 against The Canaries and can be backed at 29/20 to score at anytime in this one.
Southampton v Tottenham, Saturday, 3pm
Tottenham have won 5 of their last 6 against Southampton and are 7/4 to bounce back from last weekend’s shock home defeat by Newcastle. They have lost 11 points from winning positions this season and thought they’d bad another 3 when in front on Sunday. Christian Eriksen is the value at 9/4 to score anytime here having netted 3 in the last 3 against the Saints.
Stoke v Crystal Palace, Saturday, 3pm
Crystal Palace have won 10 on the road since Alan Pardew came from Newcastle and are the only team not to be behind at half time this season. Johan Cabaye has scored 4 in 4 against the Potters and at 19/4 is a real value bet in this one as an anytime scorer in a match which appeals as a low scoring one. 20/23 on both teams NOT to score is very fair while 21/10 on a draw is also value.
West Brom v Bournemouth, Saturday, 3pm
Bournemouth have turned their season around in the last fortnight with wins at Chelsea and at home to Manchester United. They travel to The Hawthorns on Saturday where they have not won in 8 visits while WBA are still smarting from the late equaliser which denied them a famous win at Anfield last Sunday. The Baggies are 7/5 for 3 crucial points here.
Newcastle v Aston Villa, Saturday, 5.30pm
It would be typical of Newcastle to follow up on memorable wins against Liverpool and Tottenham with a home defeat to rock bottom Aston Villa whom are winless in the Premier League since the opening day and are already tailed off and facing relegation.
Villa are 14/5 for a shock 3 points but they are lacking confidence at present and have not won in their last 9 at Newcastle, failing to score in last 3. Newcastle are odds on at 20/21 which is always dangerous with them and are 12/5 to win to nil. Steve McLaren will need no incentive to remind his players this is a huge chance to make it 3 wins in a row in front of live Sky cameras.
Watford v Liverpool, Sunday 1.30pm
Sunday’s live action starts with Watford whom have still to win back to back home Premier League wins. They face Liverpool who have won their last 4 at Vicarage Road and are 20/21 to make it 5.
They have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with Watford.
The Hornets have been the season’s fast starters and in fact had the League been decided at half time, would be top with 27 points on this basis. Watford to lead at half time is great value at 16/5 with the same also applying to Liverpool to win from behind at 11/1.
Swansea v West Ham, Sunday, 4pm
Swansea are another team lacking confidence at the moment and have not won in 6 at The Liberty Stadium while they have only managed to score first 3 times this season which is the lowest in the league. West Ham are a huge price at 13/5 here. Back them to score first and take Andy Carroll, whom has grabbed 4 goals in his last 4 against The Swans, to score at anytime at 9/5.
Arsenal v Man City, Monday 8pm
The highlight of the last round of Premier League matches before Christmas is saved until Monday night where if Leicester fail to beat Everton on Saturday, the top spot is up for grabs!
Arsenal will be popular at 29/20 here against City whom they have lost only once to in last 18. City haven’t scored in their last 3 away league matches and not gone 4 on the road without a goal in nearly 19 years. Giroud is on fire for The Gunners and is 23/20 to score at anytime. This is often a feisty affair with 5 red cards in the last 5 matches.
City are 9/5 but would snap your hands off for a draw at 12/5 right now. It is a pulsating match in prospect that it’s last televised Premier League encounter before Christmas.
*Prices correct at time of publication