Angus ‘Statto’ Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
It’s been just another ordinary week in the Premier League with two live matches ending 3-3, Sunderland scoring 4 away, Aston Villa winning at home, Chelsea failing to beat WBA having led twice and we haven’t even mentioned Leicester who continue to stun the experts and are now joint top after a dramatic late win at Tottenham!
Tottenham v Sunderland, Saturday 16th January, 12.45pm
It’s at Spurs where the weekend action begins with Sunderland the visitors in a fixture which has provided a very early goal in the last 3 encounters at White Hart Lane. 20/21 on the opening goal here being before 27th minute looks very fair.
Christian Eriksen has scored in his last 3 v Sunderland and is 10/11 to score at anytime while following 5 goals in last 2 starts, Spurs old boy Jermain Defoe looks tempting on the anytime scorer market at 18/5.
The big players will no doubt be steaming in at 1/3 on a home win here and although I will be surprised if that is not the case, it has been a season to expect the unexpected.
Chelsea v Everton, Saturday 16th January, 3pm
Chelsea will be hoping to bounce back to winning ways against Everton who haven’t won in their last 20 Premier League meetings at Stamford Bridge. Although that is slightly misleading as 9 have ended in draws and it’s 13/5 for another stalemate on Saturday afternoon.
I like Draw Half Time/Chelsea Full Time at 7/2 here while keep an eye on Steven Naysmith who has scored 6 times against Chelsea and is an attractive 10/3 to score at anytime.
Bournemouth v Norwich, Saturday 16th January, 3pm
A big game at the bottom for two teams just above the relegation zone with Bournemouth 4/1 to go straight back down and Norwich 11/4 to suffer the same fate.
If either team loses this one their relegation odds will tumble.
Bournemouth have been fast starters this season and are 6/4 to lead at half time but they have not finished well.
Norwich at 10/3 are a sporting bet for the upset and a generous 18/1 for a come from behind win.
Man City v Crystal Palace, Saturday 16th January, 3pm
Manchester City felt robbed not getting a late penalty against Everton on Wednesday and have won 9 of their last 10 games against Palace including the last six.
Sergio Aguero is a very short 9/4 to open the scoring and 1/2 to score anytime against a team he is yet to score against. City should win but it might not be pretty and they left it very late to snatch the points at Selhurst Park earlier this season.
Newcastle v West Ham, Saturday 16th January, 3pm
Newcastle are currently 8/11 for relegation and I fancy them to stay up.
It will not be easy for the home side despite the fact West Ham have only won once in their last 12 visits to St James’ Park and have in Dimitri Payet a very exciting player who is in great form and scored a superb goal in the midweek triumph at Bournemouth. At 9/5 he is a decent play in the anytime goalscorer market. A draw in this one looks over the odds at 9/4.
Southampton v West Brom, Saturday 16th January, 3pm
This fixture has not provided many thrills in recent times and with only 3 goals in the last 5 meetings between the two it looks a great wager at 4/6 to have two goals or less.
Of Premier League fixtures that have been played at least 10 times, Southampton v Bolton is the only one which has produced fewer goals.
Southampton are 4/6 to follow up their much needed win against Watford on Wednesday night but at the same price the low goals bet is much better value.
Aston Villa v Leicester, Saturday 16th January, 5.30pm
Despite their first home win of the season on Tuesday against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa are still 1/20 to be relegated and face a Leicester side who will be popular at 11/10 to gain another victory which would see them top of the league overnight at least.
Leicester have already got 2 more points than last season’s total of 41. They are 8/13 for a top 4 finish which would be a major achievement and 12/1 for The Premier League which would be one of sport’s greatest ever shocks!
Villa will not go unbacked here at 12/5 but most neutrals will be on Leicester and they’ll be pleasantly surprised they can get odds against.
Liverpool v Man United, Sunday 17th January, 2.05pm
Liverpool and Manchester United clash on Sunday with both sides having drawn 3-3 in midweek.
United have won 6 of the last 8 meetings including 2 of last 4 at Anfield.
They also have 11 Premier League wins at Anfield, more than any other club. They can be backed at 9/4 which on the face of it seems very generous but currently they are not at the top of their game and may have to settle for a point.
Liverpool salvaged a point against Arsenal on Wednesday and will be desperate not to lose to their fiercest Lancashire rivals so 11/5 on a draw is not only decent value but the most likely outcome.
Stoke v Arsenal, Sunday 17th January, 4.15pm
Plenty will take a 2nd look at 16/5 on Stoke to beat Arsenal as a really good sporting bet.
Mark Hughes’ side have beaten Chelsea and both Manchester Clubs at home recently and have only lost one of their last 7 against The Gunners.
Those fancying Arsenal will want to back Giroud at 23/20 to score at anytime while the visitors are only 5/6 for a crucial 3 points. They may well win but are no value. The Gunners are currently 5/4 to win the title just behind Manchester City at 11/10 and many feel they will never get a better chance than this season.
Swansea v Watford, Monday 18th January, 8pm
If they weren’t aware of it before now, Swansea will certainly realise that after their 4-2 loss at The Liberty on Wednesday they are in a relegation battle and are only 6/4 for the drop.
It has been at home they where have missed out, winning only 1 of their last 9 since their memorable come-from-behind win against Manchester United in August. The 19 points they have is 11 shy of the total they had achieved last season from the same number of games.
All that said and despite having exceeded expectations this season, Watford were poor at Southampton in their latest game which gives The Swans a chance at 7/5 for 3 much-needed points in Sky’s Monday night offering from The Liberty.
*Prices correct at time of publication.