Angus “Statto” Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
The visit of champions Chelsea to Upton Park for the last time in a league game looks the pick of the Saturday 3pm kick offs in the Premier League this weekend.
Saturday 3pm Kick Offs
West Ham have been terrific away from home but they will not be relishing this fixture as Chelsea have won 14 of the last 18 contests between the two and not conceded in the last 5 against The Hammers. The Blues are 10/11 to win by any method and 13/5 to win to nil.
Something has to give at Villa Park where Aston Villa face Swansea having lost their last 5 matches. The Swans are also out of form, not winning since their come-from-behind triumph against Manchester United at The Liberty at end of August. Swansea can take heart that Villa have only won 1 of the last 8 against Swansea, so in a game neither can afford to lose the draw at 11/5 looks the bet.
Crystal Palace have really turned their away form around since Alan Pardew joined. They had only won 1 on the road in 61 but they have now gone 9 away wins from 12 and this has not been factored into the price at Leicester on Saturday, where they are a generous 21/10 to make it 10 from 13 on their travels. Johan Cabaye has found form and is 16/5 to score at anytime which looks good value.
Were Cabaye to score from the spot he would become the first player in the Premier League to score a penalty in 4 matches in a row.
Leicester have a poor record against Palace losing 4 of last 6 but have a man in form in Jamie Vardy who has netted in 6 consecutive matches and will be popular again this weekend at 13/10 to score at anytime.
West Brom have won 4 of their last 5 at Carrow Road and could be overpriced at 3/1 to win at Norwich while Stoke will be hoping to end a dismal run of head-to-heads with Watford as they haven’t scored in 5. But The Potters are in good form and are value at 11/10 in what looks set to be a low scoring affair.
Arsenal v Everton, Saturday 24th October, 5.30pm
The live TV Match at 5.30 sees Arsenal’s chance to go top of the table overnight as United face City on Sunday afternoon. The Gunners are 2/5 to follow up their heroic midweek victory over Bayern Munich and have a tremendous record against Everton losing only 1 of the last 16, but 4 of the last 6 meetings between the two have been draws and that can be backed at a tasty 15/4.
Sunderland v Newcastle, Sunday 25th October, 12.00pm
Sunday’s action begins at noon with the Tyne-Wear derby with Sunderland still looking for their first Premier League win of the season but hoping to register an amazing 6th win in a row against their arch rivals Newcastle. Sam Allardyce becomes the first manager in history to have managed both sides in this fierce derby having been in charge at Newcastle in the 1-1 draw in 2007.
Newcastle only gained their first win of the Premier League season last Sunday with a thumping 6-2 thrashing of Norwich but will know that counts for nothing unless they follow it up with 3 points at The Stadium of Light and at 15/8 they look great value to end their recent misery in this fixture. Sam Allardyce will be hoping that he continues his great start to new jobs in the top flight at home having won 3 and drawn the other in his 4 previous opening home league games as manager.
Bournemouth v Tottenham, Sunday 25th October, 2.05pm
Spurs have a great recent record on Sundays and I am surprised you can get 6/5 on them extending it to 5 wins in 8 on The Sabbath at Bournemouth whose season has been decimated by key injuries.
Manchester United v Manchester City, Sunday 25th October, 2.05pm
The big game of the weekend is in Manchester on Sunday where City are looking for their 50th derby win and will be hoping to continue their great recent record in this fixture having won 6 of last 8. They are 13/8 to make it 7 from 9 but the amazing stat here is that none of last 12 have been draws which in some ways is the obvious result this time round and it sits at a tempting 5/2.
Scoring hasn’t been scarce in recent Manchester derbys with the last 10 providing 41 goals suggesting the 2/1 on 4 or more goals, 4/5 on 3 or more and 19/4 on 5 or more are all value plays. Wayne Rooney has scored 11 times in this fixture, more than any other player and will be popular at 31/20 to score at anytime while United punters may also be tempted by 29/10 on Rooney to score and United to win.
Liverpool v Southampton, Sunday 25th October, 4.15pm
Jurgen Klopp has already made a huge impact at Liverpool and his first Premier League home game against Southampton should be a fantastic occasion. The price of 20/21 on a home win looks very generous to me and Liverpool have won the last 3 against The Saints.
*Prices correct at time of publication