Angus ‘Statto’ Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
Bournemouth are 5/4 to get back to winning ways in the first live action this weekend in the clash with Newcastle who have not won in 12 on the road and only scored 3 times in those games.
Bournemouth v Newcastle, Saturday 12:45
It may be a bit early to call this a crucial relegation battle but currently Bournemouth are 21/20 to go straight back to the Championship with Newcastle 6/4 for relegation.
This match may not be pretty but Bournemouth tend to be fast starters with 8 of their 12 goals coming in first half, the highest percentage in the top flight. If Newcastle survive the opening period they may get spontaneous and 17/2 on no goalscorer will be a value bet.
Saturday 3pm Kick Offs
Manchester United got a welcome win on Tuesday thanks to a goal from Wayne Rooney which could be bad news for West Brom as he scored 7 times in his last 7 matches against The Baggies. He will be a popular bet at Evens to score at anytime on Saturday afternoon at Old Trafford where United are very short at 3/10 to win. They are 20/23 to win to nil as they have already kept 7 clean sheets in The Premier League this season, the most in the division.
United have only lost once in last 13 at Old Trafford ironically to WBA which is a word of caution for odds-on backers!
A big surprise for me is that Norwich v Swansea is a fixture that down the years has consistently produced goals; 26 in the last 6 meetings! You can get 12/5 on 4 or more goals , 6/1 on 5 or more and 14/1 on 6 or more – all value prices on the basis of recent encounters between the two.
I like Norwich at 29/20 to get back to winning ways at Carrow Road where surprisingly they have lost 6 of the last 8 and only won 1. But Swansea have an appalling record at the Canaries losing 11 of the last 15 so this is a big chance for Norwich.
Leicester have picked up more points from losing positions than any other club this season and are 9/1 to win from behind this weekend against Watford.
Jamie Vardy is only the 3rd player to score in 8 successive Premier League games, the other two being Ruud Van Nistlerooy and Daniel Sturridge. Vardy is 21/20 to score at anytime and make it 9 in a row.
Watford have started the season well and of the 10 goals they have conceded this season 9 have been in the 2nd half. 20/21 has to be a great bet here on the 2nd half of this fixture producing the most goals while 2/1 on it being goalless at half time also looks value.
Stoke v Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm
Jose Mourinho has never lost 7 top flight League games as a Manager and has no margin for error now having lost 6 this season. Chelsea have made the worst start to the season of any Premier League Champion with 11 points from 11 games. Blackburn managed 14 points in 95/96 as champions after 11 games.
If Chelsea lose on Saturday it will be the first time since 1978 they have lost 7 of the opening 12 league games; that year they were relegated and despite their woeful start you can still get 250/1 on Chelsea to play Championship football next season! They are only 5/2 to finish in the top four so it is clear that the BoyleSports odds compilers haven’t given up on them just yet.
Prior to recent league cup defeat to Stoke, Chelsea had won 14 of the previous 17 meetings and if anyone had suggested earlier in the season you could have got odds against on a Blues win in this fixture they would have questioned your sanity. But you can get 21/20 on 3 points for the Champions on Saturday night in the live 5.30 clash.
Aston Villa v Man City, Sunday 1.30pm
Aston Villa will have Remi Garde in the dugout, the 6th Frenchman to manage in The Premier League on Sunday for their home clash with Manchester City. Garde won his first match as manager of Lyon 3-1 v Nice but Villa Have failed to score in 5 of the last 7 v City and lost 7 of the last 8 against The Citizens.
They have also lost 5 of their last 6 matches at Villa Park. City have often scored late in this fixture with 4 goals later than 88th min in last 3 visits. I like the 2nd half to have more goals than the first at 20/21 here.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace, Sunday 4pm
Crystal Palace have scored 3 goals in their last 3 meetings against Liverpool and have won 9 of their 13 away league games under Alan Pardew which is an astonishing record. On this basis 20/21 on both teams to score is the real value while Palace are a big price at 9/2.
Arsenal v Tottenham, Sunday 4pm
Arsenal have had by far the better of recent North London Derbies at The Emirates with Spurs having only won 1 of the last 22 in the top flight. But Tottenham are no mugs this season and haven’t lost since their narrow and unlucky defeat at Old Trafford on opening day of the season, the longest current unbeaten run in the top flight.
31/10 is a very reasonable price on a draw here while no goalscorer at 13/1 is a huge price for the neutral. The match should be an open and exciting one but if you offered Spurs who played on Monday and Thursday a point now with two home London derbys to come, they would be delighted and that is why the 13/1 is over the odds.
Like all, I hope for more entertainment in the Sky Sports Super Sunday showpiece but a 13/1 winner wouldn’t make it such a damp squib if the game fails to match the inevitable pre match hype!
*Prices correct at time of publication