Brazil v Holland – Selecao Seek Out RedemptionStats
Brazil v Holland
After respective heart-breaking defeats in the semi-finals, Brazil and Holland will be looking for a redemption in the 3rd/4th place play-off on Saturday.
In games like this, motivation is always a key factor. And while Brazil have plenty of reasons to want to win this match and salvage something from their home World Cup; Netherlands can be forgiven for wishing they were already on a plane home.
Luiz Felipe Scolari’s men were embarrassed, humiliated and torn to shreds by the Germans on Tuesday night in the biggest shock result in World Cup finals history. Without talisman Neymar and leader Thiago Silva, the host nation crumbled to a 7-1 loss and their first defeat in a competitive game on home soil since 1975.
The Selecao go into this game looking to right the wrongs of that semi-final and at least give their adoring public some small crumbs of comfort.
Netherlands, on the other hand, will be crestfallen and without any true incentive after the semi-final penalty shoot-out defeat to Argentina. Louis can Gaal’s men were arguably the better side in the 120 minutes of normal time during the game – effectively nullifying the threat of Lionel Messi and creating the better clear cut chances themselves – but were undone in the shoot-out.
Furthermore, both with three goals in the tournament so far, Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben are unlikely to catch current top scorer James Rodriguez in the race for the Golden Boot.
Expect both sides to make plenty of changes to their starting XI, but the Brazilians will at least look to maintain a strong backbone as they aim for some small retribution. Thiago Silva can return from suspension and offer some leadership and discipline to a defence that was non-existent at times against Germany.
The Dutch, on the other hand, are likely to make sweeping changes and offer starting berths to most of their squad who have yet to feature, or have played a minimal role, in the tournament so far.
The two sides last met in a friendly last summer with the game ending in a goalless draw. The most recent competitive meeting, however, came at the 2010 World Cup when Netherlands won 2-1 thanks to a couple of Wesley Sneijder goals after Robinho had given Brazil an early lead. Felipe Melo was shown a red card late on in the game.
Given that they have the incentive to win and their opponents do not, a bet on Brazil at odds of 5/4 is the only option in the Match Odds market. And with neither side likely to be keen to play extra time, avoid any temptation to back the 5/2 about this game ending in a draw after 90 minutes.
Goalscorer markets can offer some great value in matches where second-string XIs are likely to be named. Jordy Classie impressed for Netherlands when introduced as a substitute in the semi fina, and could be given license to venture forwards here, at odds of 25/1 to score first he’s worth an interest. While Jo is likely to start up front for the Brazilians and can be backed at odds of 13/2 in the same market.