Mark O’Haire’s Euro 2016 Tips – Wales v Andorra
Wales v Andorra
Thirteen months ago Wales kicked off their European Championship qualifying campaign with a scrappy and far from convincing 2-1 win in Andorra.
Wales v Andorra, Tuesday 13 October, 19.45, ITV1
Fast forward to today and Chris Coleman’s men host the reverse fixture with qualification already assured for France this summer.
Despite their 2-0 defeat in Bosnia, Cyprus’ win in Israel meant the Dragons ended their 57-year wait for a major tournament finals appearance, sparking wild scenes of celebration amongst Welsh players and supporters. It makes Tuesday night’s encounter with no-hopers Andorra a little meaningless.
It’s difficult to believe Wales will have prepared for this game properly. In fact, it’s hard to imagine most of the squad not enjoying a few beers and the odd glass of champagne since Saturday night. But even with a hangover, the Dragons should have few problems dispatching the Andorrans at Cardiff City Stadium.
The visitors sit rock bottom of the group with a -30 goal difference having been beaten in all nine of their qualifiers.
Go beyond the pool and Andorra have lost all bar one of their previous 67 matches and all of their most recent 32 away days dating back to 2003. In 31 of those encounters, Andorra failed to even score a goal whilst conceding on average nearly five goals-per-game.
Arguably even more alarming is Andorra’s average loss-rate when on the road. The minnows have suffered 25 of those 32 reverses by a margin of four goals or more so immediately the 20/21 on Wales -3 in the handicap market comes into focus. The Dragons were unbeaten in eight before their weekend defeat in Bosnia and should breeze past the 205th ranked nation in the world.
The Correct Score Route
Coleman has already claimed he’s had no instruction from Real Madrid to rest Gareth Bale but even so, the world’s most expensive player may be taken out of the line of fire against Koldo Alvarez’s part-timers. It’s also worth noting that Wales have netted more than twice in a game just once in their past 41 meaningful matches so rather than heading down any goals or handicap route, it may pay to split our stakes between the two most likely correct scores.
Wales to win 3-0 is 9/2 and Wales to win 4-0 can be backed at 11/2 – Andorra have either conceded three or four goals in each of their last five qualifiers and even if the Dragons do take their foot off the gas on Tuesday night, they should still have enough purpose and talent to rack up a few goals in the party atmosphere.
Wales to win 3-0 @ 9/2
Wales to win 4-0 @ 11/2
*Prices correct at time of publication