Odds All Wrong In Newcastle v Liverpool
Newcastle v Liverpool
In-form Newcastle host struggling Liverpool this weekend, have the bookmakers got the betting all wrong?
Less than a month ago Alan Pardew was a manager teetering on the edge of unemployment. Back-to-back league wins against Leicester and Tottenham plus a Capital One Cup triumph over Manchester City and all of a sudden the Newcastle boss is walking on water.
The players themselves can take a lot of credit for the way that they have turned their fortunes around in recent weeks. They have continued to battle for their manager and show that they are still firmly behind him. Despite falling behind in games against Crystal Palace, Hull, Swansea and, most recently, Tottenham this season, they’ve battled back to take a total of six points from those games.
The Magpies now come into this weekend’s game against Liverpool unbeaten in three league fixtures and with just one defeat in seven in all competitions.
Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers will be hoping that the late turnaround in the midweek Capital One Cup game against Swansea will be the turning point for both the team and striker Mario Balotelli.
With five minutes remaining in the game it looked as though the Reds would be consigned to another defeat but Balotelli, introduced from the substitute’s bench, got his second goal for the club to equalise before Dejan Lovren scored the winner at the death.
The Reds had previously drawn 0-0 with Hull after being taken apart 3-0 by Real Madrid three days prior, both coming after narrowly squeezing past QPR 3-2 thanks in large part to a couple of own goals. Brendan Rodgers’ side have won only two of their last six Premier League games and haven’t produced a performance that impressed since the 3-0 win at Spurs back in August.
The Reds are likely to revert to a similar starting XI that were held to a goalless draw by Hull after Rodgers made several changes to the XI for the midweek cup game. Mamadou Sakho and Danniel Sturridge wont be involved as they continue to recover from respective thigh and calf injuries.
Alan Pardew also made sweeping changes in midweek and will revert to his first choice XI this weekend, although Cheick Tiote is doubtful due to an injury picked up in the warm-up against Leicester.
This fixture last season ended in a 2-2 draw, while Liverpool were 2-1 winners at Anfield as Newcastle had two players sent off. The Magpies haven’t won any of the last four meetings and were crushed 6-0 when the teams met at St James’ Park two seasons ago.
There have been six red cards in the last five head-to-heads, with five of those dismissals being for Newcastle players.
Liverpool are not a team to be backing at Even money odds this season, and particularly away from home, regardless of their opponent. And up against a Newcastle side with the bit between their teeth, they can be opposed with some enthusiasm.
Newcastle are a very good bet at odds of 14/5, while the Newcastle or Draw selection at odds of 5/6 in the Double Chance market offers a more conservative approach to opposing the visitors.
Goals could be scarce in a match between two teams that aren’t exactly potent in front of goal this season, and so the odds-against 11/10 is a standout bet for Under 2.5 goals.