Gold Cup Trends – Cheltenham 2015

Gold Cup

Outright Betting

Quite simply the “big one”, the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup staged over 3m2f is a race punters look forward to all year as it provides seven adrenalin-fuelled minutes of sheer excitement on every occasion, while in the process throwing up juicy winners at 7/1, 8/1 and 20/1 since 2010.

There has certainly been something for everyone in the market down the years, although last year’s 20/1 winner was the first in 10 years to return bigger than 8/1 – indeed, Lord Windermere was one of just 107 runners priced at 17/2 or bigger to triumph (1%).

Favourite backers will also welcome the fact that placing £1 on the market leader since 2005 would have returned a clear profit of +£8.

Age & Experience
The older runners struggled to cope with those in their prime from the 6-9yo bracket, as they catered for each of the last 10 Gold Cup winners (10%) – those older were 0-40. The age was also represented in the number of chase outings faced prior to Cheltenham, as 8 winners faced fences on just 5-10 occasions (14%), a much superior strike-rate than the remainder at (2%).

Class-wise, all bar one Gold Cup winner was officially rated 167+ or was Irish-trained with no rating (19%), while those lower struck just once at 1-96 (1%). On the theme of class, 9 winners faced Grade 1 company on three or more occasions in their career (10%), while those with less experience at the highest level were only 1-54 (2%).

It’s also worth remembering that all bar one Gold Cup winner experienced Cheltenham on 1-4 occasions prior to this day (11%), which turned out to be an advantage against the remainder at 1-61 (2%).

Checking the distance any potential bet ran over last time may also prove worthwhile, as nine winners since 2005 raced over exactly 3m, while another check should be made on the rest period prior to the big day, as all 10 winners had a 31-day break or longer – those that reappeared more quickly were 0-37.

Also make a note of which racecourse was used as a final prep for the Gold Cup, as all 10 winners arrived via Kempton, Leopardstown or Newbury – the remainder were winless at 0-77. Looking slightly further back into a horse’s form shows that each victor took a Grade 1 race during their career, while all bar two had a ‘1” in their last three form-figures.

Trainers & Jockeys
The two biggest trainers in Britain, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson won jump racing’s Blue Riband on five occasions between them, with Nicholls successful on three occasions from 2007-2009.

Trends Summary (British & Irish form only)

Of the last 10 Gold Cup winners…

10 were 6-9yo’s (10%) – others were 0-40
10 were Irish (7) or French-bred (3) – the British-breds were 0-24
10 won a Grade 1 race – others were 0-83
10 arrived via Kempton, Leopardstown or Newbury – others were 0-77
10 had a 31-day break – others were 0-37
9 returned 8/1 or shorter (25%) – others were 1-107 (1%)
9 were officially rated 167+ or Irish-trained (19%) – others were 1-96 (1%)
9 ran over 3m exactly last time (13%) – others were 1-75 (1%)
9 raced at Cheltenham on 1-4 occasions (11%) – others were 1-61 (2%)
9 had 3 runs or more in a Grade 1 (10%) – others were 1-54 (2%)
8 won during their last three runs (9%) – others were 2-56 (4%)
8 had 5-10 career chase runs (14%) – others were 2-86 (2%)
5 favourites won for a level stakes profit of +£8