Hobbs To Confirm Form In Derby

Irish Derby

Outright Betting

Punters looking for the winner of Saturday’s Irish Derby may not have to look too far down the betting if recent history is anything to go by…

…as all bar one winner since 2005 returned 6/1 or shorter – a fact that will give supporters of Jack Hobbs (4/6) plenty of encouragement.

Jack To Confirm Form?
John Gosden’s Derby runner-up may not have been good enough to beat stablemate, Golden Horn, at Epsom (1m4f, good to firm) and…

There will be nothing of that quality at the Curragh on Saturday though, hence why punters have smashed into him.

Having also been beaten by Golden Horn at York in May, Jack Hobbs looks to have a fantastic opportunity in gaining a first Group 1, though Aidan O’Brien’s Highland Reel (11/2), may have something to say about that.

Highland To Reel Them In?
A Group 2 winning juvenile over 7f, Highland Reel showed the expected improvement up in trip this season when beaten just over 1l into second by New Bay in last month’s French Derby at Chantilly (1m2f, good to soft). On official ratings, Highland Reel has 5lb to find with Jack Hobbs, who looks to be the better colt of the pair at this stage of their careers.

As for the stats, then it’s worth noting that both Treasure Beach (2011) and Fame And Glory (2009) went on to gain compensation here at the Curragh having finished runner-up at Epsom, which bodes well for Jack Hobbs, whose rating of 119 puts him bang there on past trends…

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Irish Derby winners…

9 returned 6/1 or shorter
9 were officially rated 112 or higher
8 raced twice or less during last 90 days
8 had a 41% or better career strike-rate
8 made the top three last time
7 already raced over 1m4f
7 arrived via Epsom
A O’Brien won it 8 times

Another O’Brien Success?
The above trends also highlight the outstanding record of Aidan O’Brien in the Irish Derby, winning it an amazing eight times in the last 10 years, which not only gives a nod to Highland Reel, but also Giovanni Canaletto (7/1).

This son of Galileo may have been beaten 10l at Epsom (7l behind Jack Hobbs), but may do better here as he is a late foal and can only strengthen, especially back at this more conventional track.

Qualify Takes on Colts
Ballydoyle also have the Oaks winner, Qualify (12/1), entered. This filly got home by a short head at Epsom and will need a bit more to beat the colts here, but she is most certainly an exciting addition to Saturday’s field.

Elsewhere, Willie Haggas sends over Storm The Stars (7/1), who was also in the picture at Epsom, finishing third, 5l behind Jack Hobbs. He was just done for speed on the Downs that day, before keeping on nicely, and will also appreciate the more galloping nature of the Curragh.

Recommended Bets
Epsom form three weeks ago looks sure to have a say in the Irish equivalent and it will be a surprise if runner-up, Jack Hobbs, can’t confirm placings with Storm The Stars and Giovanni Canaletto.