Aramist Another Last Time Out Winner?
Punters looking for one last big handicap puzzle to crack before the Flat season ends have the opportunity to do just that at Doncaster on Saturday, courtesy of the November Handicap (3.35).
The Channel 4 cameras will be in attendance for this historic handicap which is as open as ever – indeed, the current favourite, Mount Logan, is as big as 9/1. Luca Cumani’s 3yo has earned that quote thanks to a C&D victory 56 days ago, but the trends suggest that “last time out winners” may be ones to swerve…
Of the last 10 November Handicap winners…
10 returned 20/1 or shorter – others were 0-99
10 were officially rated 93 or higher
10 ran in a class 2 or class 3 race last time
10 won a handicap – others were 0-35
9 were 3-5yo’s – others were 1-52
9 carried 8st7lb or more – others were 1-81
9 were non-winners last time out – last time winners were 1-49
8 had never won a class 2 race or higher – those that did were 2-90
7 ran at either Doncaster (3) or Newmarket (4) last time
7 ran during last 31-60 days (13%) – others were 3-167 (2%)
A glance at the above stats highlight some interesting angles, including the aforementioned last time out winners, who triumphed in this race just once from 49 runners since 2004.
If that pattern continues, then a total of nine runners of this year’s field of 23 have that trends to overcome, including the likes of Old Town Boy (10/1), Open Eagle (10/1), Headline News (12/1) and Latenightrequest (14/1) – four of the leading contenders.
With that in mind, it could pay to take on such “last time out” winners with some bigger priced runners who may have saved their best for Saturday, namely Aramist (20/1).
Alan Swinbank’s improving 4yo has already won three handicaps over 1m4f this season,
…before not staying 1m6f on two occasions in September. He was then switched back to 1m4f at York last month when staying on strongly (good to soft). Any more rain to fall on Town Moor will be in his favour.
David Barron’s Esteaming (14/1), is another with a likeable profile for this race, and while giving the impression he is in the handicapper’s grip, Saturday’s slog, in what could be very soft ground, will be in his favour.
Manhattan Swing also makes some appeal at 16/1 for Brian Ellison, who won this race previously. This 4yo arrives via an unconventional hurdles route, but will handle conditions and is unexposed on the level.
Dashing Star (16/1) meanwhile, was over 4l behind Latenightrequest over C&D a few weeks ago (soft), but is only up 1lb for that and has the services of Jamie Spencer, who will be keen to exit his last-ever Flat season in style.
Sir Walter Scott (22/1) also catches the eye as Luca Cumani has booked Richard Hughes, and while he hasn’t shown much this year, this 4yo has had just six outings, and any money on the day could prove significant.
It could be worth ignoring “last time out winners”, who have such a poor record in this, instead opting for value, such as Aramist, who is battle-hardened, will love soft ground and is from a yard amongst the winners of late.