Triumph Hurdle Trends – Cheltenham 2015
The junior version of the Champion Hurdle in which several winners went on to land the big one later during their career in Katchit and Detroit City – the latter being only the only favourite to win the Triumph during the last 10 years.
Investors looking for value on the final day of the festival may want to ignore the favourite, as this event has not proven too kind for the market leader since 2005. Indeed, seven of the last eight years winners returned between the juicy range of 4/1 and 10/1.
As with a number of major Grade 1 events, the cream came to the top in the Triumph, as each of the last 10 winners were officially rated 139+ or Irish-trained (no rating) – a fact that left the remainder running up a losing tally of 0-58.
A solid winning record over hurdles was also deemed a positive, as once again, each winner since 2005 won 46% or more of their career hurdle runs (9%), where as those with a lesser strike-rate trailed in at 0-76 – in other words, counting against approximately 7-8 runners each year.
Another interesting angle shows runners yet to have experienced the twists and turns of Cheltenham as faring much better than hurdlers to have already been exposed here. The full record reads at those having their first run here winning the Triumph 9 times (7%), while those running for the second time or more here striking just once at 1-49 (2%).
As one might expect in a championship event, only those arriving with crisp form last time out should be considered, as each Triumph winner made the top three directly prior to Cheltenham.
Those outside the top three provided 46 losers.
Not being overly raced was key, with all bar one winner having raced just 1-2 times during the last 90 days ahead of the festival (7%) – runners outside that bracket were only 1-57 (2%). On the subject of recent form, it might pay to give extra attention to any hurdler having raced at either Kempton or Leopardstown last time, as those venues provided six of the last 10 Triumph winners.
Trainers & Jockeys
The big guns certainly delivered in this juvenile event, courtesy of Nicky Henderson, Alan King and P Nicholls landing it twice apiece, and while the Brits pretty much had their own way since 1998, two Irish-trained winners did break that sequence in 2013 and 2014.
Trends Summary (British & Irish form only)
Of the last 10 Triumph Hurdle winners…
10 were officially rated 139+ or Irish-trained (no rating) – others were 0-58
10 won 46% or more of their career hurdle runs (9%) – others were 0-76
10 made the top three last time out – others were 0-46
9 returned 10/1 or shorter (14%) – others were 1-122
9 were non-favourites
9 raced 1-2 times during the last 90 days (7%) – others were 1-57 (2%)
9 had yet to race at Cheltenham (7%) – others were 1-49 (2%)
6 arrived via Kempton or Leopardstown
N Henderson, A King & P Nicholls won it twice apiece