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With the Cambridgeshire on the horizon, Saturday’s big 1m2f handicap at Newbury (2.50) could well provide some pointers for the first leg of the Autumn Double.
Indeed, a number of runners from this event went on to land the Cambridgeshire, but for those backers looking to find the winner at Newbury, then it could pay to stick with 3-4yo’s that won during their last three outings…
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Of the last 10 winners…
10 had a maximum of 10 handicap runs
9 had a maximum of two handicap wins
9 were 3-4yo’s
9 were officially rated 87-97
9 won during their last three runs
8 returned 12/1 or shorter
One runner with the right profile is Tom Dascombe’s Cymro (8/1) who won his third race of the season at Haydock earlier this month. That comfortable 2l victory took this 3yo’s record over 1m2f on soft ground to 3-3, and the 5lb penalty he picks up for Saturday may not be enough to stop him.
Also with a 5lb penalty is Andrew Balding’s 4yo, Field Of Fame (8/1), who won by over 1l at Newmarket last month (1m2f, good).
That career best suggests he still has more to come, and having won his maiden on heavy ground, the ground should be fine.
Another on the up is Luca Cumani’s 3yo, Laurence (7/1). This colt has been raised 7lb for a career best win in a valuable handicap at Beverley last month (1m2f, good), and he showed he could handle the mud as a juvenile.
One who does have a question mark surrounding the forecast soft surface is Ralph Beckett’s 3yo, Pacify (9/1), an impressive 10l winner of a decent handicap at Newmarket in July (1m2f, good to firm), prior to a fourth (of 15) in a similar event at York last month. A pound higher on Saturday than last time, he may need to find more.
The 6/1 favourite, Top Tug, meanwhile, represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard, though he seems high enough in the handicap having not won since landing a maiden in May 2014. Saturday’s drop back to 1m2f on soft ground should see him thereabouts, but others may prove better handicapped.
What About Carlo (10/1) shouldn’t have any problem with the ground either, but is 5lb higher for winning an average three-runner event at Epsom last time (1m2f, heavy), suggesting better value may come via William Haggas’ Mange All (14/1). This 4yo was fifth in the Lincoln (1m), before absent until York last month. That outing would have done him good and his second in a 1m2f handicap on soft last September says he could be a player if supported in the market .
A number of improving 3-4yos to choose from, but the vote goes to Field Of Fame, who can be a keen sort, but will enjoy more cover and pace on Saturday. His apprentice also takes off a handy 5lb, which could make the difference.
*Prices correct at time of publication