In Form Elm Park To Take Town Moor By Storm

History suggests Saturday’s Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster (3.50) could have a big impact on next season’s betting for the Classics.

With the likes of Camelot and Authorized having won the race during the last eight years – both of whom won the following season’s Derby – then punters will need to pay attention when this year’s runners enter the stalls.

Favourite
Currently heading the betting on 5/2 is Andrew Balding’s Elm Park, a winner of three of his four outings, including a 1m Listed event at Salisbury in August – a victory that was bettered in Group 2 company at Newmarket last month (1m, good to firm).

Produced with a late run that day when hanging on fast ground, the recent rain will aid his chance upon Town Moor, and he goes there with the best form in the book.

Sir Mark Prescott doesn’t have many leading chances in Classics these days, so his supporters will be hoping Celestial Path (4/1) can make the step up from winning a 1m Listed event at Haydock last month (good). A 4l winner that day, this colt needs to improve further, but has the scope after just two successful outings.

Aidan O’Brien
But, what of that man Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race an amazing eight times during his career? Well, he held numerous entries at the five-day stage, but relies on Jacobean (3/1) and Aloft (11/1).

Jacobean comes here as a maiden having finished runner-up to stablemate, Royal Navy Ship, who himself heads to Leopardstown for a Group 3 on Sunday. There was plenty to like about that debut when finishing strongly over 7f (yielding), and he looks sure to step up considerably for that experience.

Aloft meanwhile, won a 1m maiden at Newmarket three weeks ago (1m, good), and while he also needs to step up, it’s worth remembering that O’Brien’s, Kingsbarns, won this race in 2012 having only won a maiden beforehand.

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 racing Post Trophy winners…

8 ran over 1m last time (16%) – those up in trip were 2-47 (4%)
8 won over 1m (24%) – those yet to win over 1m were 2-64 (3%)
7 won 66% of their career runs (21%) – others were 3-66 (4%)
6 were American or British-bred at 15% – Irish-breds were 4-56 (7%)
A O’Brien was 3-23 (won it 8 times in total)

Outsiders
A glance at the above trends shows that juveniles who won two-thirds of their races did well at Doncaster, which bodes well for John Gosden’s, Snoano (10/1), who won a couple of minor 1m events the last twice. He only just scrapped home by a short head last month and will need to improve at least a stone to get involved.

Of the remainder, Restorer (14/1) was a 1l second in a Group 3 a few weeks ago and is entitled to show up well, while Tupi (14/1) was second in Group 2 and Listed grade prior to flopping when 8l behind Elm Park last time.

Recommended Bets
There have been a few of shocks in this race down the years with 20/1 and 25/1 winners (2005 & 2006), but with favourites landing six of the last seven renewals, Elm Park can continue that trend for followers of the jolly.