Gabrial To Lead Bear Attack In Celebration Mile
Testing conditions will await Saturday’s runners for the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood (3.45), but one who won’t mind the mud is current 8/13 favourite, Kodi Bear.
‘Wood To Bring Out Best In Bear
Clive Cox’s 3yo signed off last season with a runner-up effort in a Group 1 at Newmarket (7f, soft), before picking up Listed and Group 3 honours this season. The second of those came at Salisbury a fortnight ago (1m, good) when an impressive 4l victor – making every yard of the running under Gerald Mosse. The nature of Goodwood’s sharp track will suit Kodi Bear’s style of running, and he looks sure to go off in front under Mosse once more.
Kodi Bear also comes from the right end of the market based on past trends, as there haven’t been many shocks down the years…
Celebration Mile Trends
Of the last 10 winners…
10 were officially rated 108 or higher
10 ran in a Group race last time
9 returned 8/1 or shorter
8 came from stalls 1, 2 & 3
S Bin Suroor (3 wins), Sir M Stoute (2)
Will Breton Hit Rock Over A Mile?
Another who should be okay in the ground is David Simcock’s 5yo, Breton Rock (5/1), a Group 2 winner in the mud last summer when landing the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury (7f, good to soft). Third in the same event a few weeks ago, Breton Rock will love the ground, but does still have it to prove over this mile – all seven career wins came over 6f-7f.
Similar comments apply to Charles Hills 4yo, Cable Bay (6/1), a Group 3 winner over 7f in May, who was just over 1l behind Breton Rock in the Hungerford. Cable Bay undoubtedly has class, having been placed in Group 1 company, but a testing mile may prove too much.
While the trip won’t be a problem for Captain Cat (16/1), its possible better ground may suit this 6yo on turf, so he will need consideration if it dries out.
Gabrial Makes Each-Way Appeal
With doubts surrounding several of these regarding both ground and trip, there could be each-way value in Richard Fahey’s, Gabrial (16/1). This 6yo has run some crackers this season, having left the handicap ranks, including a 3l third to Solow in the Group 1 Sussex over C&D last month. Beaten just over 2l by Kodi Bear at Windsor in late-June, Gabrial certainly makes each-way appeal at 16/1.
For those looking to back the winner, then Kodi Bear ticks all the boxes and may appeal to odds-on backers.
But, for those looking at an each-way punt, then Gabrial wasn’t far behind Kodi Bear at Windsor in June, and may get closer on Saturday granted a softer surface.
*Prices correct at time of publication.