Terror A Big Price To Trot To Guineas Glory
Sunday’s second Classic of the season is shaping up to be quite an open affair, and one in which backers could end up with a nicely priced winner with the betting currently 9/2 the field.
Bolger Back At HQ!
Leading the market at that price of 9/2 is Jim Bolger’s Lucida, runner-up in a Group 1 at the Curragh (7f, good to firm), before Group 2 success here at Newmarket in September (7f, good). Although beaten over 2l into fifth by Together Forever in here final race here in October, the ground was too soft, and a better showing can be expected on Sunday if the rain stays away.
But, with winners of this race having returned at 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 in the last six years, an open mind should be kept in the hunt for Sunday’s winner, which means Aidan O’Brien’s Qualify (8/1), should be respected. A Group 3 winner at the Curragh in September, before not enjoying her trip to the Breeders’ Cup, could it be a tip in itself that Ballydoyle rely purely on her?
Of the last 10 1,000 Guineas winners…
9 won last time out
9 ran over 6f-7f last time
9 either ran once or made their debut here
8 were Irish (5) or American-bred (3) – British-breds were only 1-64
A O’Brien won it twice
The Brits’ main challenge comes via a trainer who knows how to send out Classic winners here in Barry Hills, who relies on Fadhayyil (7/1). Beaten 1l by Lucida in the aforementioned Group 2 over 7f here in September, Fadhayyil kept battling to the line that day and holds prospects of making the frame, even if her breeding is more speed than stamina.
As for those having already proved their wellbeing this season, then Richard Hannon’s Osaila (8/1), arrives having just scrapped home in a Group 3 at Newmarket last month (7f, good to firm), and showed she stayed a mile when third in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies’ Mile last October. Winners of the Nell Gwyn don’t have a great record in this, though.
Meanwhile, John Gosden’s Jellicle Ball (12/1), was beaten just under 1l by Redstart (12/1) at Newbury last month (7f, good to firm), and there may not be much between the pair this time around – Tiggy Wiggy was back in third. As with the Nell Gwyn, though, the Fred Darling Stakes winner to follow-up in the Guineas came back in 1999.
Another Big-Priced Winner?
For those looking for another big-priced winner in this (victors returned at 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 during the last six years), then David Simcock’s Terror (33/1), has an unexposed profile.
She easily won her final race last year over 6f here, and who knows what improvement this step up in trip may bring.
David Wachman also has an interesting runner in Legatissimo (10/1), who recorded a career best in winning a Listed race at Gowran Park last month (1m1f, good, and will not be found out for stamina or fitness.
A cracking line-up, and one featuring a number of last time out winners, who have such a good record in this. One with such a profile is Terror, who is unexposed, has won a Pattern race here at Newmarket, and is out of a dam who won over 1m. At 25/1, she could surprise a few people.