Resilient Rosberg To Knock Hamilton Off Perch

Four time Hungarian Grand Prix winner, Lewis Hamilton, is odds on favourite at 1/2 to win in Hungary again this weekend but does Rosberg pose better value at 2/1?

The Season So Far
Two weeks ago at Silverstone, Mercedes broke a record set by Ferrari in the 1952-53 season by having two drivers on the podium for the ninth race in a row. This time it was Lewis Hamilton who prevailed over Nico Rosberg with Sebastian Vettel once again proving the best of the rest. Hamilton’s lead over Rosberg in the Drivers’ Championship has increased to 17 points, with Vettel a further 42 points back. The Williams drivers occupied fourth and fifth positions and Fernando Alonso managed his first points for McLaren-Honda, finishing tenth.

The Circuit
The mid-summer visit to the Hungaroring in Mogyorod, Budapest, is always a challenge for drivers. Like Monaco, it is a narrow, tight, twisting track which puts a lot of pressure on brakes and driving technique. DRS has improved the overtaking situation, but it is still a tough track on which to pass and the race can be won or lost on pit stop strategy. As ever, temperatures will be high, although there is the possibility of a thunderstorm or two over the weekend.

In The Pits
For much of the season, Ferrari has had the better of the duel for second place in the Constructors’ Championship and, particularly in the early weeks of the year, it seemed that they had the potential to significantly close the gap on Mercedes.

But that hasn’t materialised, in fact, since Mercedes introduced their second engine in June, Ferrari have appeared to be going backwards. In their last three runs, Williams have looked the stronger team, and in terms of alternatives to the Mercedes drivers in the win market, I don’t think either Vettel or Kimi Raikkonen offer value.

Recommended Bets
Lewis Hamilton reasserted himself at Silverstone with an impressive display to win his third British Grand Prix and given that he has won in Hungary four times, it is no surprise to see him priced up at 1/2 this week. But while he is a deserved favourite, I think the odds overestimate his advantage over his team-mate.

Rosberg is proving to be a resilient rival and given that this Grand Prix will in all likelihood be a two horse race, the value clearly lies with the German.

Back Rosberg at 2/1.

As already noted, Ferrari have lost a little ground in recent weeks and it seems that Williams are now the closest rivals to Mercedes, albeit still some way behind. Valtteri Bottas has a slight lead over Felipe Massa in the Drivers Championship but the Brazilian has been performing more strongly in recent races.

He made the podium in Austria for the first time this season and finished ahead of his team-mate at Silverstone last time. Both offer a touch of value, but Massa is the tentative each way selection to take advantage of any Mercedes slip-ups.

*Prices correct at time of publication