O’Brien Won’t Be Found Wanting In Coronation Stakes

Coronation Stakes

Outright Betting

The highlight on day four of Royal Ascot is the Group 1 Coronation Stakes over a mile (4.20) in which Aidan O’Brien will be looking to win the race for the first time since 2010.

Found To Find Compensation

The odds suggest O’Brien has a good chance of triumphing too, as his Found heads the market on 7/4 having run two good seconds this season.

The latest of which being a 1/2l second to Pleascach in the Irish 1,000 Guineas (1m, good).

Found lost no caste in defeat that day, and will be looking to gain compensation here, though she will need to beat another Guineas winner in Ervedya (7/2), who arrives having won the French 1,000 last month (1m, good to soft).

Found vs Ervedya Part II

Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly took her career record to 5-7 that day, when showing a scintillating turn of foot to beat Irish Rookie (10/1) by 3/4l. There is also history between Ervedya and Found, as the latter beat the French filly over 2l in a Group 1 at Longchamp last October, and this rematch promises to be a thriller.

The trends also suggest that both fillies are ideally placed in the market…

Trends Summary

Of the last 10 Coronation winners…

9 returned 8/1 or shorter
9 were officially rated 108 or more
9 were British or Irish-bred
9 won 31% or more of their career runs
9 made the top seven last time
9 ran during the last 60 days
8 ran in a Group 1 last time
J Gosden, B Hills and the Hannons won it twice apiece

Guineas Form Tested

With both the Irish and French Guineas form well represented, the British version could also play a big part via Jim Bolger’s, Lucida (3/1), who finished a 3/4l runner-up to Legatissimo at Newmarket (1m, good to firm). There were no excuses on the day, and a repeat of that effort on the likely fast ground that awaits should see her bang there again.

Outside of the Guineas form, then John Gosden – who has won this race twice – brings his improving filly, Sperry (12/1). A winner over C&D in April, she then upped her game in Listed company at York last month when beating Yasmeen (12/1) by 1/2l. This will be a big step up for both fillies, but Gosden’s record in this race suggests Sperry represents each-way value.

Each-Way Value

Another improver at big odds is David Elsworth’s Arabian Queen (16/1), who made a winning reappearance in Group 3 company at Epsom a few weeks back (1m, good). She made all the running that day to record by far a career best, and she may give the protagonists here something to think about if allowed a soft lead up front.

Recommended Bets

All eyes will be on a fascinating rematch between Found and Ervedya following their French clash last year, where Found can confirm her defeat of the French filly, while gaining some deserved compensation following her Irish Guineas second.