Pete’s Picks – Dublin v Mayo Analysis & Tips
Dublin have been all the rage in the All-Ireland SFC semi-final outcome-related markets in the past 72 hours but it may be worth going against the grain and siding with Mayo to reach the final against Kerry.
Dublin v Mayo, Football, RTÉ, Sky Sports, 3.30pm
Available at 4/7, Dublin, now second favourites to lift Sam Maguire behind Kerry, have been steadily supported to produce a match-winning display at Croke Park thus extending the westerners’ title heartache for another year.
Additionally, punters are snatching at the odds available on Jim Gavin’s charges prevailing by three points or greater at even-money.
BoyleSports then have Mayo pitched at 15/8 to advance to the showpiece in regulation-time. The draw is 17/2.
Mayo may be underestimated at those odds, however.
They were ravenous in disposing of Donegal though, in saying that, it was highlighted here months back that the northerners were not as defensively sound as perceived.
Still, the Pat Holmes and Noel Connelly jointly-led outfit have been notably aggressive this season.
In Tom Parsons and Séamus O’Shea they arguably have as effective a midfield pairing as David Moran and Anthony Maher and if that duo can excel Mayo can betray their outsiders’ tag.
Dublin, of course, have so much firepower and can hurt virtually any team, especially with Bernard Brogan returning to such devastating form in an oddly understated fashion.
The younger of the Brogan brothers is the 11/2 favourite to score the first goal with BoyleSports and 12/5 with the firm to raise a green flag at any stage in the contest.
In fact, goals may be in plentiful supply at headquarters.
Incredibly, in the last 24 league and championship matches Mayo have been involved in dating back to the beginning of last season there has been a whopping 79 goals scored.
Furthermore, the westerners have managed to keep just five clean sheets in those 24 games with one of those achieved against New York last year.
Therefore, for Mayo to progress they will, of course, need to be far more defensively stable on Sunday.
Dublin, too, are noted for being involved in matches whereby green flags are floated around like confetti – there was four in their All-Ireland quarter-final against Fermanagh while they alone pilfered 11 in three Leinster encounters this year.
So, BoyleSports’ 10/11 that at least three goals will be scored on this occasion is worth getting stuck into.
Furthermore, to smaller stakes, take the 9/4 touted that four green flags will be held aloft.
This could be the most pulsating clash of the summer in both codes and a high-scoring affair at that.
In fact, the main total points line has been set at 39.5 which is a strong indicator of the type of collision expected on Jones’ Road.
Yet, at the end of it all, Mayo could well be the team standing as their all-action approach might just generate the required number of scores to return to the venue for a joust with Kerry.
Keeping stakes low, back Mayo -1 on the alternative handicap for outstanding value.
Dublin are understandably favourites but Mayo have more going for them than the odds indicate.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11
Over 3.5 Goals @ 9/4
Mayo -1 @ 23/10
*Prices correct at time of publication.