Border Poll Now Odds-On To Happen This Decade
A referendum on Irish unity before the end of the decade is still an odds-on shot despite Boris Johnson’s claim that it wouldn’t take place for a ‘very long time to come’.
The UK Prime Minister was speaking for a BBC NI Spotlight programme this week in which Taoiseach Micheál Martin also warned that calling a referendum too soon would be ‘explosive and divisive’.
The prospect of a vote taking place before 2023 remains an outside chance despite shortening into 5/2 from 7/2 since the start of the year,
however the odds on a referendum getting the green light before 2030 have plunged into an odds-on 4/9 from 2/1.
A new LucidTalk poll suggested 49% of voters in Northern Ireland would opt to remain in the UK against 42% backing a breakaway.
It’s still a hot 1/6 shot that there is no constitutional change even if there is a referendum before the end of the decade.
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