RSA Chase Trends – Cheltenham 2015

Plenty of future Cheltenham Gold Cup winners won this prestigious novice chase prior to the big one 12 months later…

…and punters should be alert for any Gold Cup ante-post odds once this year’s winner passes the winning line. The question is: who will it be?

Betting
Backers may want to keep their options open when looking at the odds, as recent winners of the RSA Chase have come from all ends of the market, with Cooldine (9/4) and Denman (6/5) scoring in 2009 and 2007, while winners at 10/1, 12/1 and 16/1 emerged during the last five years.

Age & Experience

This is one area that investors may well find the biggest clue to this year’s RSA winner, as a whopping nine of the last 10 winners were all 7yo’s (14%), compared to the remainder at 1-60 (2%).

The exception to that rule was the 5yo, Star De Mohaison, in 2006, although he was officially rated 143, as were seven others; the other two winners were both Irish-trained and therefore had no rating.

Another pointer involving a typical winner’s profile was their experience here at Cheltenham, as nine RSA victors all raced at the track previously (13%), comparing very favorably with those yet to step foot on Cheltenham at 1-56 (2%). Clearly those novices being asked to handle the demands of this unique course for the first time at such a high speed in a championship were at a disadvantage.

It’s also worth noting Irish-bred runners, as they provided nine winners since 2005 at a strike-rate of 12%, in the process counting against runners with various origins at 1-46 (2%).

Form
A good effort last time was a prerequisite for this race, as nine past winners made the top two the outing prior to Cheltenham, while those novices to have finished third or worse struck at just 1-43.

Runners kept fairly busy from December also came out on top, with all bar two of the last 10 RSA winners having made the racecourse 2-3 times during the last 90 days.

Trainers & Jockeys
Two trainers who won this prize twice since 2005 were Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, although jockey, Barry Geraghty, topped them by scoring three times. Ruby Walsh rode two winners. Irish trainers, however, held the upper hand in this event in recent times, winning four of the last six renewals, with Willie Mullins boasting a long-term pedigree having won in 2009, 2004 and 1998.

Trends Summary (British & Irish form only)
Of the last 10 RSA Chase winners…

10 were officially rated 143+ or had no rating (Irish) – others were 0-30
9 were 7yo’s (14%) – others were 1-60 (2%)
9 were Irish-bred (12%) – others were 1-46 (2%)
9 raced at Cheltenham (13%) – others were 1-56 (2%)
9 made the top two last time – others were 1-43
8 had 2-3 runs during their last 90 days
N Henderson & P Nicholls won it 2 times apiece