Seeley’s Selections – Thursday’s Europa League
After the punting highs and lows of the Champions League semi-finals we move onto its baby brother, the Europa League, with two very contrasting semi-final second legs for us to get stuck into on Thursday night.
Fiorentina v Sevilla, Thursday 8:05, live on Setanta
After a week when we nearly landed the 3-3 in the Bayern Munich v Barcelona match (I still can’t get that last minute miss out of my mind), we start off with a game that puts us in exactly the same punting predicament when Sevilla travel to Italy to take on Fiorentina.
The defending champions Sevilla hold a 3-0 lead from the first leg and we saw from Barcelona in midweek what a difficult mindset that is for teams when they know that they’ve got one foot in the final already.
If you want to back Sevilla then you’ve come to the right place as BoyleSports will give you an industry best 23/10 for the win, but those lads in Dundalk are a shrewd bunch and they know they don’t have to go all out for the victory and they probably won’t.
If you watched the first leg you will know that the scoreline flattered the Spaniards and they should never have won by such a wide margin and there is a lot to like about the 5/4 with BoyleSports on the Viola getting revenge in this one. Vincenzo Montella was always a gutsy player and his side will not go down without a fight as they will still believe they are in with a shout in the tie especially if they can get an early goal.
My main bet on this one is on the goals market as I really can see a hatful being scored.
Over 2.5 goals at 7/10 looks a great bet with BoyleSports and that has been a winner in the last five Fiorentina games
…including a 3-2 win at Empoli at the weekend which moved them up to fourth in Serie A.
Sevilla will also play their part in the goal scoring having now found the net in the last 16 matches and also at the 4/7 with BoyleSports on both teams to score, this is a big fat yes from me. That market has been a winner in eight of the Spaniards’ last ten matches and also in four of the last five for the Italians and in what promises to be a European classic that looks the call again.
At a big price I’m going to take a chance on a 3-2 Fiorentina win at 18/1 with BoyleSports and if you want a goalscorer then Josip Ilicic is a confident selection at 13/2 with BoyleSports. The Bosnian international is in fine goalscoring form having netted five times in his last four matches including a brace for the second time in three weeks at the weekend.
Fiorentina To Win @ 5/4
Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/10
Both Teams To Score – Yes @ 4/7
Correct Score: Fiorentina 3-2 @ 18/1
Josip Ilicic First Goalscorer @ 13/2
Dnipro v Napoli, Thursday 8:05, live on ITV4 & 3e
If goals and action and excitement are going to be served up in Italy the same can’t be said for what we are going to witness in the other semi-final in the Ukraine when Dnipro host Napoli.
The visitors are very short at 20/21 to win this with BoyleSports after the two played out a 1-1 draw in Naples last week. How Rafa Benitez’ side didn’t get the win in a tie they totally dominated is still a question being asked in southern Italy and one which could haunt them.
Napoli had 19 shots on target, 70 per cent possession and had 14 corners and even at the odds-on, I won’t be backing them to make amends for that on Thursday. Dnipro are on the verge of their greatest season in their history, but being a Dnipro fan hasn’t been the most exciting this year.
The Ukrainians went down 2-0 at home to Zorya at the week, understandable with complacency and one eye on this, the biggest game in the club’s history. That defeat was the first time they’ve conceded at home since December last year (nine matches) and it was also the 11th time in the last 12 home games that under 2.5 goals had been scored and at 7/10 with BoyleSports, that is the bet again in this one for sure.
In Dnipro’s last 10 home games, both teams have also failed to score and you can see where I’m going again here with a ‘no’ in that market at 5/6 with BoyleSports.
It’s always hard when teams park a bus in front of their goal to break them down, but it could be impossible tonight for the Italians when they have to break down a whole garage of buses and at 8/1 with BoyleSports, a small play on no goalscorer is advised.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 7/10
Both Teams To Score – No @ 5/6
No Goalscorer @ 8/1
*Prices correct at time of publication