Supercopa Stalemate Between Madrid Giants

After a tight 1-1 draw at the Bernebeu, we preview the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup and picks out the best bets.

Form
Atletico picked up where they left off last season on Tuesday by causing an upset at the home of one of Spanish football’s big two. Having won the title at the Nou Camp just three months ago, coincidentally with a 1-1 draw, they earned another 1-1 draw, this time at the Santiago Bernabeu.

James Rodriguez gave the hosts the lead on 81 minutes after being introduced as a second-half substitute, then Raul Garcia equalised late on to level the tie and leave the match perfectly poised for Friday’s second leg.

The match, in general, was a scrappy affair that saw five yellow cards and neither side really get into any sort of rhythm. Perhaps the effects of the summer’s World Cup and consequentially shortened pre-season preparations were to blame for a game that is usually quite keenly contested.

Team News
Cristiano Ronaldo was taken off at half time as he looked to be struggling with a back injury; James Rodriguez who looks to be the most obvious like-for-like replacement in the starting XI if required replaced the Portuguese on the night. Angel di Maria also made an impact from the substitute’s bench and despite reported interest from other clubs is forcing his way to the forefront of his manager’s reckoning.

Atleti don’t appear to have any fresh injury concerns going into the second leg. Diego Simeone has been strongly linked with a move for Tornio star Alessio Cerci, but it’s unlikely that any move would be completed in time for him to feature here.

Head-to-Head
This will be the seventh occasion in the past 12 months that the two teams have met, with two draws, two Atleti wins and three Real wins (one coming after extra time) making up the other six. Although Real have spent big in the summer,

Tuesday night’s game suggests that, at least for one off games, these are two very evenly matched teams.

Recommended Bets
Having watched the first leg and with home advantage switched, there is no value in backing Real Madrid to win the match in 90 minutes at odds of 11/10. Atletico, conversely, look to be good value at odds of 5/2, but I prefer the safety of backing them in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 6/4. There’s also the option to back Simeone’s men at odds of 3/4 in the Double Chance market which bundles the draw and a home win into the same selection.

I was expecting goals in the first leg, but they didn’t quite materialise, and in fact it didn’t ever look as though there would be a flurry. I’m going to take my medicine and learn my lesson on that one, now jumping ship to back the Under 2.5 goals selection at odds of 20/21.