Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends – Cheltenham 2015

Now celebrating its 10th anniversary, the Albert Bartlett has built up a reliable set of trends dating back to 2005, including the solid record of classier runners with a higher official rating.

Age & experience
The official ratings are one area that investors may well find the biggest clue in finding this year’s Albert Bartlett winner, as the likes of At Fishers Cross (rated 152), Bobs Worth (150) and Wichita Lineman (148) were all classy winners of the race. Indeed, a glance back at the full 10-year history shows that all a bar one French winner was actually rated 135 or higher (10%), counting massively against those rated lower that struck at just 1-91.

While not as informative as the previous trend, it could still be worth checking the age of any potential bet, as 5-7yo’s catered for each Albert Bartlett victor, in the process taking care of the other age-groups at 0-21. The younger hurdlers profile was also seen via the number of career outings they experienced over timber prior to Cheltenham, as eight winners had a blend of being unexposed, yet not over raced with 3-4 career hurdle runs (10%), unlike those outside that range at 2-98 (2%).

Betting
The Albert Bartlett is yet another of the festival Grade 1’s which speaks heavily in favour of those in the top half of the betting, though punters eyeing up a big price will be hoping a third 33/1 shot can win the race in six years. Bar those two shock outsiders winning in 2010 and 2014, the remaining eight victors came from the five in the betting (15%) – the others were 2-127 (2%).

Form

One of the most amazing stats surrounding this race is that every single winner of the Albert Bartlett lined-up at Cheltenham having ran in a Grade 2 last time (17%), elevating themselves above the remainder who ran in a different class level at 0-120.

The rest period prior to this assignment also had some bearing, with all bar one winner last seen during the previous 26-75 days (7%). Those that ran either too quickly or were too rusty following an absence struck just once at 1-48 (2%).

It’s also worth taking note of the fact each of the 10 winners were either Irish or French-bred, as the British-breds missed out at 0-29.

Trainers & Jockeys
Not many trainers bagged this prize on more than one occasion, apart from Jonjo O’Neill, who amazingly won with his only two runners in 2006 and 2007. One such winner was Wichita Lineman, who was given a memorable ride by Tony McCoy, in the process taking the jockey’s tally to three winners in the race.

Trends Summary (British & Irish form only)

Of the last 10 Albert Bartlett winners…

10 were 5-7yo’s – others were 0-21
10 were Irish or French-breds – the British-breds were 0-29
10 ran in a Grade 2 last time (17%) – others were 0-120
9 were officially rated 135 or higher (10%) – others were 1-91
9 ran during the last 26-75 days (7%) – others were 1-48 (2%)
8 came from the first five in the betting (15%) – others were 2-127 (2%)
8 had 3-4 career hurdle runs (105) – others were 2-98 (2%)
Jonjo O’Neill won it twice with only two runners