All-Ireland Football Odds 2023 – Who Will Win Sam Maguire?

We have All-Ireland Football odds for you with only two teams remaining as we now know the teams that will contest this year’s All-Ireland Final.

And then there were two. It’s the All-Ireland Final. It’s Dublin v Kerry. A classic awaits us.

Will Kerry add yet another All-Ireland title to their record? Or can Dublin climb back to the top of the gaelic football mountain?

Check out the All-Ireland football odds and betting below as we take a look at the chances of both teams ahead of the 2023 All-Ireland Football Final.

All-Ireland Football Odds

Kerry

2022 defending All-Ireland champions Kerry are 4/5 favourites to win the 2023 All-Ireland Football Championship going into this year’s All-Ireland Final.

The Kingdom went into the year as favourites as they looked to be the best side in the country by some distance based on the talent in their ranks and their performances last year.

Kerry were as short as 6/4 coming into 2023 to defend their title but a poor spring and start to the Championship saw The Kingdom drift out in the betting odds as they became second favourites behind Dublin.

League Campaign

Kerry had a poor league campaign and it was even worse based on expectations surrounding this county heading into this season. They definitely underwhelmed. In the end, they finished 5th in Division One with only three wins from their seven games and four losses.

In regards to their poor league campaign a lot of people will say ‘Ah it’s only the league’ and point to the fact that Kerry weren’t ‘targeting’ the league this year. To that I would say that a strong league campaign has become increasingly important in modern gaelic football and the idea that you can just flick a switch come Championship time is misguided.

If we look at the last 10 All-Ireland Champions, only once has a team had a losing record in the league and went on to win Sam Maguire. That team was in fact Kerry in 2014 when they had a record of 3 wins and 4 losses in that year’s National League.

Munster Championship Campaign

Kerry coasted through the Munster Championship yet again in what has become an annual procession down in the south. They faced off against Tipperary in the semi-final where they recorded a facile 0-25 to 0-25 victory.

The Munster Final saw them matched up with Clare who beat Cork at the quarter-final stage. Clare were little match for the Kingdom as Kerry would win the game by 14 points on a scoreline of 5-14 to 0-15.

All-Ireland Campaign

Coming out of the provincial championships we were none the wiser on Kerry’s Championship prospects given the quality of teams they faced. They came into their opening round All-Ireland series game against Mayo untested and with just a poor league showing to go off of.

Despite The Kingdom having showed no form this season they were still installed as strong favourites against Mayo. Kerry were not able to live up to those expectations as they were outclassed by Mayo in Killarney. The final result was a five point loss but it could have been more if the westerners were more clinical in front of goals.

Kerry’s second game in the All-Ireland group stage pitted them against neighbours Cork and they were once again disappointing as they stumbled to a 2-point win in a game they were heavily favoured in. Many had expected The Kingdom to come out strong after their loss to Mayo in the first round but in the end it was another disappointing performance.

Their final game of the group stage came against Louth who The Kingdom made light work of with a final scoreline of 5-24 to 0-11.

The quarter-final draw pitted Kerry against old rivals Tyrone. This was billed as a serious test for Kerry who had been in poor form this season prior to that Louth victory. It ended up being a test that The Kingdom would pass with flying colours as they blitzed Tyrone in the second half to run out 12-point winners on a scoreline of 2-18 to 0-12.

Next up was Ulster Champions Derry in the semi-final. Kerry went into this game as strong favourites at -4 in the handicap betting. However, it was Derry who played most of the football in this game and went into the final ten minutes 2 points up.

In truth, Derry should have been further in front going into the final minutes of the game but they were wasteful in front of goals in the second half which ultimately cost them a place in this year’s All-Ireland Final. Kerry, with the help of nine points from David Clifford, somehow hunted Derry down and in typical Kerry fashion did what they had to in the dying minutes to get over the line.

Analysis

Kerry have underwhelmed in 2023 on their way to a second consecutive All-Ireland Final appearance. They are favourites going into this year’s All-Ireland Final against Dublin but that is unjustified in my opinion.

Apart from the victory over Tyrone (which was their best performance this year) they have been too reliant on superstar David Clifford. They were there for the taking against Derry but the Oak Leaf County were incredibly wasteful in front of goals in the second half which ultimately sealed their faith.

They just about had the beating of the Dubs in last year’s semi-final and now they will face a Dublin team that looks much better than the one from last year.

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Dublin

Dublin are second favourites at Evens odds to win the 2023 All-Ireland going into this year’s All-Ireland final against Kerry.

The Dubs started off the year as second favourites for Sam Maguire and spent most of the year in that same spot in the odds market behind Kerry. However with Kerry’s disappointing league, followed by a humbling defeat to Mayo in Killarney, Dublin became the favourites to reclaim the All-Ireland.

Entering the quarter-final stage Kerry joined Dublin as joint-favourites at 11/4 odds. However, after an immense performance by the Dubs in their quarter-final against Mayo they reclaimed favouritism on their own.

Those odds of 11/10 look fair considering the footballers from the capital pushed Kerry all the way last year and Dublin seem to have improved this season whereas The Kingdom look appear to not quite be at the level they were at last year.

League Campaign

The Dubs of course played their football in Division Two this spring and while they mightn’t have dominated throughout the league in the fashion that some might have expected they did end up winning the competition. In other words, job done.

In the Division Two final they beat table toppers Derry courtesy of a blitzing second half which saw them come from two points behind at half-time to win the game by seven points.

Leinster Championship Campaign

Dublin were once again crowned kings of Leinster but they failed to dominate the Leinster Championship in the manner that we have come to expect from them. They did start off the competition in typical fashion with a facile 4-30 to 2-09 win against Laois, more evidence if any were needed that the Tailteann Cup is a good thing for gaelic football.

It was Dublin’s semi-final against Kildare which really caught the eye as they struggled to a 0-14 to 0-12 victory over the Lilywhites at Croke Park. Dessie Farrell’s team were lucky to get out of that game with the win and you could argue that Kildare played the better football on the day.

The Dubs did then go on to impress against Louth in the Leinster Final where they won on a scoreline of 5-21 to 0-15 with the game over as a contest by half-time.

All-Ireland Campaign

Dublin were drawn alongside Roscommon, Kildare and Sligo for the novel All-Ireland group stage.

Their first outing in this year’s All-Ireland series came against Roscommon at Croke Park in the first round of the All-Ireland group stage where they drew. It could have been an even worse start for Dublin had the Rossies landed a last second long range free to win the game at the death.

In Dublin’s second round All-Ireland series group stage game they recorded a facile nine-point victory over Kildare. This could have been a tricky game for the Dubs having struggled against the same opposition in the Leinster Championship but instead they proved why they are now the bookies’ favourite to win this year’s All-Ireland.

Dublin’s last game of the group stage came against Sligo who they outmatched in a facile 3-23 to 0-08 victory which saw the Dubs top the group and book a quarter-final spot.

The Boys in Blue were drawn against familiar foes Mayo in the quarter-final in what was billed as the marquee game of quarter-final weekend. Dessie Farrell’s side were perhaps a little fortunate to go into the break a point up but there was no such doubts about their second half performance. The Boys in Blue blitzed Mayo in the opening ten minutes of the second period and cruised home from there to a 12-point victory.

Monaghan were the opposition in the semi-fina and the Dubs were expected to make light work of the ulster side as they were given a -7 point handicap and odds of 1/8 to win the game. However, the game didn’t play out like most people expected as Monaghan were right there with Dublin until the 65th minute of the game.

Dublin, as they always seem to, turned the screw in those dying minutes and would go on to win by seven points although the final scoreline wasn’t an accurate reflection of how tightly fought the game was. The Dubs advanced to play Kerry in the All-Ireland final, but not before they were given a real scare by Monaghan.

Analysis

I disagree with the odds makers/ betting markets here in making Dublin underdogs (however slightly) ahead of this year’s All-Ireland Final against Kerry.

The Boys in Blue were co-favourites of 11/4 with Kerry heading into the quarter-finals and then favourites on their own at odds of 11/10 ahead of the semi-finals. Of course, Dublin had the easier matchup in the semi-final against Monaghan so that was part of the reason that they regained favouritism alone.

In my opinion, Dublin should be favourites going into this year’s final and I really don’t see what Kerry have done in 2023 to warrant favouritism ahead of this decider.

It took a monster Sean O’Shea free for the Kingdom to get over the line by a single point in last year’s semi-final between the two teams. And in my estimation this is a much better Dublin team than last year while Kerry have taken a step back from the level they were at in 2022.

Dessie Farrell’s side have timed their run perfectly and are peaking at just the right time. It wasn’t always pretty in the semi-final against Monaghan but if they can return to their level of play in that second half against Mayo then I don’t think any side in the country can match them, Kerry included.

In the All-Ireland Hurling Championship the field has been whittled down to the final two as the competition enters the semi-final stage. We recently took a look at the remaining contenders for Liam MacCarthy in our All-Ireland Hurling Odds post.

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