Angus “Statto” Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
Chelsea go into Saturday’s big lunchtime clash with Arsenal at Stamford Bridge already eleven points behind Manchester City and, for many, with no chance of retaining the title with just five matches gone.
Chelsea v Arsenal, 12:45pm Saturday
BoyleSports now offer Chelsea at 11/1 to retain the Premier League, but only Blackburn Rovers as Premier League champions have made such a bad start to their defence – also picking up just four points from their opening five games.
Chelsea have a great recent record against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, winning five of the last six encounters by a total of 19 goals to four. The exception was a famous 5-3 win for The Gunners. Unlike matches played at the Emirates, the games in West London have been full of goals and 15/8 on Over 3.5 goals in the match is appealing.
Chelsea have conceded at least two goals in every Premier League match so far this season and BoyleSports offer 29/20 on Arsenal scoring two or more on Saturday. The real value bet, if you fancy Chelsea, has to be 12/5 on Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 goals in the match. Based purely on the evidence of stats in this fixture it should be much shorter odds on that outcome!
Manchester City v West Ham, 5:30pm Saturday
The second live offering on Saturday sees unbeaten league leaders Manchester City take on West Ham at 5:30pm. The Hammers have never beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City away in the same season and are 10/1 to complete a most unlikely treble after just six games.
The Hammers had been impossible to predict this season until Monday’s home win against Newcastle and will surely regard any points they pick up here as a bonus. City had made the perfect start to the season until Wednesday’s Champions league blip against Juventus, and are 1/4 to win but a value 21/20 to keep a clean sheet.
Another way of playing this wager is to back 10/11 on Both Teams Not To Score, which leaves a 0-0 draw and a suprise West Ham win to nil also running for you – albeit at slightly shorter odds.
Saturday’s Other Matches
In the other non-live Premier League games on Saturday Villa face West Brom, with both having won just once this season. It is 11/5 for a draw this weekend, which will be popular, while 17/4 on Villa to win and both teams to score looks value.
Everton are overpriced at 21/10 to make it four wins out of five at The Liberty Stadium against Swansea.
Sunderland didn’t play badly in their defeat to Spurs last Sunday and look good value at 17/4 for three points at Bournemouth, and worth a speculative punt at 9/1 to win with both sides scoring in the match.
The last four matches for both Watford and Newcastle have seen two or less goals it is a generous 20/21 on that outcome at St James Park.
Tottenham v Crystal Palace, 1:30pm Sunday
Tottenham begin Super Sunday hoping for a first Premier League home win of season against Crystal Palace, who have an amazing record of eight away wins out of ten since Alan Pardew took over.
At 31/10 Palace will be popular, but the draw at 5/2 appeals to me here as a value play and would be the fourth in the last six meetings between the two sides at White Hart Lane.
Southampton v Manchester United, 4pm Sunday
Manchester United may have lost the 1976 FA Cup Final to Southampton but since then they have had more victories and scored more goals than any other side against The Saints, including last season’s 2-1 triumph which was totally against the run of play.
United will be popular at 11/8 to bounce back from their European defeat to PSV on Tuesday, and Anthony Martial is 9/5 to score at anytime following his sensational debut strike against Liverpool last weekend. Former Saint Luke Shaw will be in the thoughts of all on Sunday after his double leg break on Tuesday.
Games between these two at St Mary’s are often full of goals – and early ones too – so it is a tempting 23/20 that the first goal of the match comes in the 32nd minute or earlier. United to win with Over 2.5 goals in the match is also over the odds at 10/3.
*Prices correct at time of publication.