Angus ‘Statto’ Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
Manchester United travel to Watford in the opening Premier League match after the international break at 12.45 on Saturday.
Watford v Manchester United, Saturday 21st November, 12.45pm
United have won the last 9 matches between the two sides and if they keep a clean sheet until half time, will have gone 600 Premier League minutes without conceding a goal.
Ryan Giggs grabbed the winner in a 2-1 victory in the last encounter at Vicarage Road 9 years ago. United will be popular at 20/23 here while 0-0 at half time at 6/4 is also a price that will tempt many punters. I can see the 2nd half providing the action here and like 21/20 on the 2nd half providing most goals.
Chelsea v Norwich, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
Chelsea face Norwich at 3pm and in normal circumstances 2/5 would seem to be more than reasonable, they have won against Norwich in 8 of the last 11 and last lost to The Canaries in December 1994. However these are not ordinary times for Chelsea who have lost 3 in a row in the league for the first time since 1999.
The most amazing stat this season is that Chelsea have lost 8 points from winning positions, something they are most certainly not used to.
They could still finish in the top 4 but many will regard the current quote of 3/1 on them to do so as a bit on the short side.
I like Norwich holding out to half time here with Chelsea going on to win at 29/10.
Everton v Aston Villa, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
It is no shock to see Everton as short as 8/15 to beat Aston Villa but 5/1 will tempt Villa fans who are desperate for a win under new boss Remi Garde. Everton have lost just 1 of their last 9 games against Villa and scored plenty of goals in the process. The value bet here is Everton to win and both teams to score at 23/10.
Newcastle v Leicester City, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
Leicester City have been one of the teams of the season so far and Jamie Vardy has been a revelation. He has scored in 9 Premier League games in a row and is 6/5 to equal Ruud Van Nistlerooy who scored in 10 straight games.
Leicester have been the comeback team this season and will be a popular bet at 10/1 to win from behind on Saturday.
Newcastle can argue their performances have been better than their results and they have won the last 4 meetings at St James’ Park against Leicester.
At 17/10 they look over the odds in a fixture where all eyes outside Tyneside will be on Jamie Vardy.
Swansea v Bournemouth, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
Swansea are a club who have not gone forward since beating Manchester United in August while Bournemouth, after a bright start, have been decimated by long term injuries.
The Cherries have been fast starters this season but have tired and for this reason I like 18/5 on them leading at Half Time. At 19/2, Swansea to win from behind is also sitting at attractive odds.
It is a huge match for both sides who are looking for a badly needed 3 points.
Southampton v Stoke, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
This is not a fixture that would normally stand out as one for both teams to score but with 5 of the last 6 meetings between the two providing goals for both sides, it makes sense to recommend Evens on a similar result this weekend as a value play.
West Brom v Arsenal, Saturday 21st November, 3pm
Arsenal have an amazing away record at present picking up 31 points of the last 36 on the road. At 40/85 their chances of extending this are surely factored in the price and 16/5 on WBA nicking a point is decent value.
Manchester City v Liverpool, Saturday 21st November, 5.30pm
Manchester City have won 4 of their last 6 at home to Liverpool and will be well backed at 8/13 to make it 5 from 7.
Liverpool are 17/4 with Philippe Coutinho, who has scored 3 times in 4 games against City, value at 100/30 to score at anytime. He is likely to be popular to score in a Liverpool win at 17/2.
Tottenham v West Ham, Sunday 22nd November, 4pm
Tottenham have lost just 2 of the last 19 in the league and not been defeated since their unlucky narrow defeat by Manchester United on the opening weekend. With Chelsea struggling, there is a huge chance for Spurs to finish in the top 4 this season.
West Ham have made their best ever start to a season and their supporters will be snapping up the 5/1 on offer for an away win. They have conceded more first half goals than any other side this season and a goal before the 27th minute looks a decent play at 20/11.
I also like 31/20 for 2 or more goals in the first half while those looking for a bigger price may fancy 5/1 on 3 or more first half goals.
Crystal Palace v Sunderland, Monday 23rd November, 8pm
The current round of Premier League matches finishes with Crystal Palace taking on Sunderland at Selhurst Park.
On the face of it, this looks a banker home win but while Palace have made their best ever start to a Premier League season with 19 points from 12 games, this has been achieved with some great away wins. It has hardly been fortress Selhurst because that is where they have struggled. It is sure to be a tight opening 45 minutes and 15/8 on a goalless first half is a decent wager.
Sunderland fans will like the 5/1 on their team but 29/10 on a draw is the more realistic outcome for those who don’t want to lump on Palace at 11/20.
*Prices correct at time of publication