Back Beau For A Brazen Show At Newmarket

July Cup

Outright Betting

Saturday’s Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket (3.45) is set to witness an exciting clash between two talented 3yo’s that both arrive having run mighty races at Royal Ascot last month.

In one corner, the Australian bullet, Brazen Beau (2/1), just touched off in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, while in the other corner, Muhaarar (2/1), winner of the Commonwealth Cup.

Brazen Beau v Muhaarar
It’s a match that will keep punters guessing right up until the off, and the betting suggests there isn’t much between them. Some backers will prefer Brazen Beau, a dual Group 1 winner back home, prior to just fading over Ascot’s stiff 6f last month (good to firm).

Beaten just 1/2l that day, Brazen Beau may have won had he not raced alone up the stands’ rail, but he’ll have more company to race with on Saturday. It’s also worth noting that seven of the last 10 July Cup winners arrived here via Ascot last time.

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 July Cup winners…

10 were drawn in stall 13 or lower
10 made the top seven last time
9 were 3-5yo’s
9 ran over 6f or 1m last time
9 won during their last three runs
8 had never run at Newmarket
8 won over 6f
8 ran in a Group 1 last time
7 arrived via Ascot

A final outing at Ascot last time also bodes well for Charles Hills’ Muhaarar who stormed to Group 1 glory at the royal meeting to the tune of almost 4l and he promises to have more to come after just eight outings.

With the betting revolving around both Brazen Beau and Muhaarar (2/1 each), there will be some tempting each-way value available, including the progressive Muthmir (12/1).

Muthmir To Deliver?
Willie Haggas’ 5yo won a Group 2 earlier this season before a 1/2l third in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, and while he has won over 6f, there is a suspicion he needs a fast-run 5f to see him back in the winner’s enclosure at this level.

Lynam Looks Strong
Another big price is Edward Lynam’s 3yo filly, Anthem Alexander (12/1), who was beaten just over 4l into third by Muhaarar at Ascot, but is capable of making the frame once more. Also capable of getting involved is stablemate, Sole Power (16/1), who gives the impression 6f may suit these days, having stayed on late when beaten over 1l in the King’s Stand Stakes.

As for the others, then G Force (16/1) will need to bounce back to last year’s form when winning the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup having been unplaced on both outings this season.

Recommended Bets

A red-hot renewal in which the Australian sprinter, Brazen Beau, can gain compensation for his runner-up slot at Royal Ascot.

Drawn on the “wrong side” that day, Brazen Beau should get a better tow into the final few furlongs this time, where he can show his class.