Ballydoyle Bound For Moyglare Magic

Moyglare Stakes

Outright Betting

With three of the last seven winners of Sunday’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (3.40) going on to land a 1,000 Guineas the following season, this year’s renewal at the Curragh could well provide some ante-post clues for 2016.

Ballydoyle Boasts Class
A reliable betting heat down the years, the Moyglare has been won by a filly from the first five in the betting on nine occasions since 2005, which bodes well for the 13/8 favourite, Ballydoyle.

An impressive maiden winner in July (7f, good to firm), this filly improved upon that to land a Group 2 over Sunday’s C&D last month (good to firm), when leaving Minding (10/1) 2l in behind.

It was a performance that smacked of class, and with Aidan O’Brien having won the Moyglare three times during the last 10 years, Ballydoyle boasts a leading chance,

though any rain may see her drift (was fourth on her debut on yielding).

Ballydoyle’s Group 2 victory last time was also a tick in the right box based on past renewals of this race…

Moyglare Trends
Of the last 10 winners…

9 came from the first five in the betting
9 made the top two last time
8 ran in a Group 1 or Group 2 last time
A O’Brien won it three times

Tanaza Value Against Fav?
Another who arrives via Group success last time is Dermot Weld’s Tanaza (7/2) who was never under any serious pressure to get to beat Alice Springs (20/1) over 1l at Leopardstown in July (7f, good to firm). Soft ground would also be a concern should any rain arrive, but the fact she also beat Minding over 2l on her debut in June (as did Ballydoyle), suggests she could be the value.

One who would want rain is Now Or Never (9/2), who impressed in taking her maiden over 7f in July, prior to a creditable Group 2 runner-up slot over C&D (soft) last month. Just nailed on the line that day having made the running, more patient tactics may be employed on Sunday, which could see her back in front. She certainly travels like a classy filly.

British Challenge
The British challenge is led by Brian Meehan’s Blue Bayou (10/1) who gave the impression a step up to 7f was required when third in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July (6f, good to firm). That was confirmed when Blue Bayou took a Group 3 back at HQ last month, relishing every yard of the 7f trip. She looks a real each-way contender.

Michael Halford’s Vitello (14/1) has a bit more to prove having won only a maiden last time, especially as 8 of the last 10 Moyglare winners came via Group company.

Recommended Bets
A top renewal in store, and hopefully the rain can stay away so that a true pointer for next year’s Classics can be found. If the ground stays decent, then Ballydoyle could score, and if doing it in impressive fashion, then her odds for the 1,000 Guineas could shorten.

*Prices correct at time of publication