Bay The New Colt In Town

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Outright Betting

It’s a clash that punters have been waiting for all summer: Treve v Golden Horn in Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (2.55).

Arc Treble For Treve?
Already a dual winner of the Arc, Criquette Head-Maarek’s 5yo heads back for what would be a historic treble if successful, and the wonder mare has been backed into evens to achieve the feat.

An impressive 5l winner of the 2013 Arc, before a 2l victory 12 months ago, it has been business as normal this season with all three outings resulting in victory. The last of them proved the best, taking her sixth Group 1 by a whopping 6l last month. It would take a good one to lower Treve’s colours, and that is exactly what the Derby winner, Golden Horn (5/1), will be attempting.

Horn To Blow In Arc?
Beaten just once in seven races, John Gosden’s 3yo got back to winning ways in the Irish Champion Stakes last month (1m2f, yielding), which came a month after his first defeat in the Juddmonte International when the slow pace never suited. A much stronger pace in a big field is expected on Sunday, where Golden Horn will get to race over 1m4f for only the second time.

The fact Golden Horn is a 3yo may also tempt some backers into siding with him against the 5yo, Treve…

Arc de Triomphe Trends
Of the last 10 winners…

10 were 3-4yo’s
10 won over 1m4f
9 ran during the last 35 days
9 won a Group 1
9 had never run in the Arc
A Fabre, C Head both won it twice

Bay The New Champ?
Not that this is a two horse race by any means, Andre Fabre unleashes his exciting 3yo, New Bay (9/2), into the mix following his impressive win in a reliable Group 2 trial over Sunday’s C&D three weeks ago. This colt travelled extremely well before quickening smartly without coming under maximum pressure.

Open to considerable improvement, New Bay will be a big threat to both Treve and Golden Horn.

Irish Challenge
While the aforementioned trio provides an impressive line-up, the presence of Dermot Weld’s 4yo, Free Eagle (14/1), adds further spice. This 4yo goes into the unknown beyond 1m2f, having won the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot, before challenging Golden Horn in the Irish Champion Stakes when hampered, eventually beaten just over 1l. Related to a 1m4f winner, Free Eagle looks up to this company and is available at good odds.

Also available at 14/1 is Aidan O’Brien’s 3yo filly, Found, so often the bridesmaid in Group 1’s this season, including the Irish 1,000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes (1m2f). She also steps up to 1m4f, but is by Galileo.

Flintshire also deserves a mention at 20/1, having won three Group 1’s over 1m4f, and the ground seems to be drying out in his favour. A 2l runner-up behind Treve 12 months ago, he arrives in form and is excellent each-way value.

Recommended Bets
Treve is respected on her triple bid, but New Bay could be a future superstar and is a 3yo, who have done so well in this race. Trainer Andre Fabre knows what it takes to win this race, and rates New Bay good enough.

*Prices correct at time of publication