Bocca Baciata To Dance Past Brooch To Curragh Glory

When punters sit down to find the winner of Sunday’s Group 3 Dance Design Stakes at the Curragh, it may prove a useful tactic in not looking too far beyond the main contenders in the betting, as there have been few shocks down the years.

Dance Design Trends
Of the last 10 winners…

10 were drawn 7 or lower
10 had Curragh experience
9 made the top three last time
9 were Irish-bred
9 ran over 1m1f or shorter last time
8 returned 4/1 or shorter
8 were 3yo’s
8 were officially rated 101 or more

As can be seen from the above trends, fancied runners rated 101 or more dominated, which in the process gives the likes of Dermot Weld’s 4yo, Brooch, a likeable profile.

Gold For Brooch?
Unbeaten in all three juvenile outings, this filly returned in May to win a Group 2 over 1m here before failing to stay 1m2f in the Pretty Polly. However, she bounced back when a 2l runner-up in a Group 2 over Sunday’s C&D last month, and will appreciate the step down to Group 3 company. Brooch will also be fitted with first-time headgear, which may help her concentration, and she sets the standard for the rest to aim at.

Ballydoyle Pair To Bounce Back?
There will be plenty gunning for Brooch, though, including Aidan O’Brien’s 3yo, Outstanding, a Listed winner over 1m2f in June, prior to a 3l third in the Belmont Oaks over in the States. Clearly not herself when beaten 23l over 1m4f in the Yorkshire Oaks, Outstanding has a good opportunity to get back to winning ways if fully recovered from that flop (pre-race betting may provide clues).

Another flop in the Yorkshire Oaks was stablemate, Easter, who previously beat Stellar Glow, by a comfortable 2l in Listed company at Gowran Park three weeks ago (1m1f, good) – My Titania 1/2l away in third. Easter also has a chance to hit back, despite being beaten over 5l by Outstanding back in June.

Bocca Baciata The Each-Way Steal
What Outstanding, Easter and Stellar Glow do have in their favour, however, is that they represent the Classic generation which won eight of the last renewals of this – a fact that also reads well for fellow 3yo’s, Bocca Baciata and Devonshire. Of the pair, the former is favoured having enjoyed the return to a soft surface when third in a Group 2 over C&D last month – a short head behind Brooch.

Recommended Bets
A really fascinating renewal in store, and one in which Brooch looks sure to go well.

However, there are never any guarantees when first-time headgear is applied, offering value to Bocca Baciata, who was only just behind Brooch last time, and will enjoy the muddy conditions that await.