Cappella Sansevero An Each-Way Reliable

Middle Park Stakes

Outright Betting

Next season’s Classic markets could look a lot different come Monday following an important weekend for the top juveniles around…

…all of whom will be looking to lay down a marker for 2015.

We start on Friday with three mouth-watering Group 1’s – the first of which is the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket (2.55), an historic 6f event for colts, which has thrown up some useful winners down the years. One who will be looking to onto better things is Richard Hannon’s Ivawood who has been a favourite with punters since the betting for this race opened, and is now the solid 4/6 market leader.

This colt’s reputation has been well earned, thanks to a 3-3 from record in which he won two Group 2’s, the first of which came at Newmarket when defeating Jungle Cat (12/1) almost 3l. However, there was better to come, when Ivawood clocked a fast time to win by over 4l back at Goodwood when last seen 78 days ago, displaying an awesome turn of foot, to beat Jungle Cat by an even more comprehensive margin.

Friday’s test at Newmarket will be his stiffest to date, and the more testing venue on possibly slower ground than experienced before will bring his fitness into question. While he is an exciting prospect, there is a feeling there could be each-way value around.

Each-Way Value
One who could offer value against the favourite is Ger Lyons’ Cappella Sansevero (7/1) who arrives having won a Group 3 at the Curragh (6f, yielding) in late-August. That victory came following a 2l second in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot, prior to a 1/2l third in Group 1 company at the Curragh two months ago (6f, soft).

Any ground suits Cappella Sansevero, and he can be relied upon to run a solid race.

Charles Hills won a Group event at Newmarket last weekend, and is responsible for Muhaarar (7/1), who was beaten over 3l by Ivawood in a Group 2 at HQ (6f, good to firm). That form was confirmed when Muhaarar only just scrapped past Jungle Cat by a nose in a Group 2 at York (6f, good) in August. Muhaarar look sure to go well, but will need to improve if getting past Ivawood.

Another who should give a good account is the 11/1 shot, Charming Thought, who despite losing on his debut, won his next two outings over – a maiden and then a novice stakes. He showed a sharp burst when arriving late to win the latter race at Leicester last month (6f, good to firm), and an even stronger gallop on Friday would bring further improvement – which he’ll need.

Trends Summary
10 made the top three during last three runs – others were 0-20
9 returned at 8/1 or shorter
9 had 1-4 career runs
8 won last time out
A O’Brien and K Ryan won it twice apiece

Recommended Bets
The ground could prove so vital, as Ivawood steps into the unknown on soft groud, which could make Cappella Sansevero the each-way option at 7/1. If it becomes a slog, then Cappella Sansevero won’t be tiring.