Colombia v Uruguay – Suarez-less Side On The Way Out?

Jaymes Monte previews the second all South American clash of the last 16 as Colombia take on Uruguay in the Maracanã.

Form
Colombia have been arguably the most impressive side throughout the group stages of the 2014 World Cup. But, as exciting as they have been, their three emphatic wins against average opposition should be taken in context, having only beaten Greece, Ivory Coast and Japan. This is only the second time in history that Colombia have reached the last 16, and the first time that they have topped their group.

James Rodriguez has scored in each of the three group games, while Jackson Martinez got off the mark with a brace against Japan in the final group game.

Uruguay’s qualification for the knockout stages has been somewhat less straightforward. An opening game defeat to Costa Rica left Oscar Tabarez’s men with an uphill battle, but one that they met head on and conquered. Battling wins against England then Italy meant a second place finish in the group.

Diego Godin’s decisive header against the Italians adds to his equaliser against Barcelona in the La Liga title decider and the opener in the Champions League final.

Team News
Goalkeeper Faryd Mondragon became the oldest player ever to play in a World Cup match when introduced as a late substitute against Japan. But first choice David Ospina will resume duty for the knockout stages of the tournament. Mario Ypes, Christian Zapata, Carlos Sanchez, James Rodriquez and others will return to the starting XI having been rested for the game against Japan.

At the time of writing Luis Suarez’s fate has yet to be confirmed, but it seems inconceivable that the Uruguay striker will escape a ban – and a lengthy one at that – for the alleged bite on Giorgio Chiellini. Diego Forlan could be given the nod in his stead.

Head-to-Head
Both nations won their home games in head-to-head matches qualifying for this summer’s World Cup: Uruguay winning 2-0 towards the end of the campaign and Colombia winning 4-0 more than a year previously. Tabarez’s side have won six and lost just one of the eight most recent meetings.

Recommended Bets
We’ve already seen how a Suarez-less Uruguay fare when the Liverpool striker missed the opening game of the campaign against Costa Rica,

…and I expect Colombia to take full advantage against another average opposition here.

Odds of 11/10 look outstanding value on José Pékerman’s side getting the job done in 90 minutes, while I also wouldn’t be afraid to take the 16/5 on Colombia -1 in the Handicap market.

James Rodriguez has led the line for Colombia in the tournament so far and is also exceptional value at odds of 13/2 to score first and 7/4 to net anytime. Goals in general can be expected and 6/5 about more than 2.5 looks a good bet, especially when considering the liberal nature of the majority of games we’ve seen in Brazil this summer so far.