Angus “Statto” Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis

When you first look at odds of 4/11 on Manchester United beating Newcastle on Saturday in the lunchtime 12:45 match your initial reaction is they are very short.

Except when you consider they have won 15 or their last 19 Premier League Matches at Old Trafford and that Newcastle have only won once at Old Trafford in 21 Premier League visits. They have also only won twice against Manchester United in their last 25 meetings home and away.

Manchester United have won their opening 2 league games 1-0 and Newcastle United have failed to win either of their opening two fixtures then you realise 4/11 is indeed the wrong price – it should be shorter!

There is better value on Manchester United Half Time/Full Time at Evens on the basis that Newcastle having been losing at in that scenario in 6 of the last 7 away games.

Leicester v Tottenham, Saturday 3pm

The pick of the Saturday 3pm kick offs is Leicester v Tottenham, where over 2.5 goals is a must play at 3/4 on the basis that this has been a winning wager in the last 10 matches in all competitions between the two sides.

Few could nominate Leicester as the Premier League Team that has taken most points since April 1st with 28 from a possible 33!

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm

The other Saturday afternoon bet that stands out is 4/6 on under 2.5 goals between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa at 4/6. This has been a winning bet in the last 4 matches for Palace and the last 3 for Villa.

Everton v Man City, Sunday 4:00

Manchester City have won their last 8 Premier League matches and amazingly have been leading at half time in the lot. It is 8/5 that that run continues and this bet will be very popular but for the fact City have a dreadful record at Goodison Park winning only 3 of 18 matches, losing 10 and 5 draws. This record would put me off taking the 4/6 for sure!

Everton, despite the opening day 2-2 hiccup against Watford, have a decent recent record at home with 6 clean sheets in their last 10 games and could be the value at 19/5.

West Brom v Chelsea, Sunday 1:30

No team has won the Premier League having taken just one point from their opening two games.

The last time it happened in top flight was when Liverpool won the Old First Division in 1981/82.

Chelsea have not lost back to back Premier League fixtures under Mourinho since May 2006 when they had already secured the title.

The Portuguese coach will be hoping history does not repeat itself as both Roberto Di Matteo and Andre Villas Boas had their last games in charge for Chelsea at The Hawthorns.

Chelsea look vulnerable again here and are shocking value at 8/13 with The Baggies 19/4 and the draw a generous looking 13/5.

Arsenal v Liverpool, Monday 8pm

Liverpool visit Arsenal on the back of two 1-0 victories, just like Manchester United, but have lost their last 3 league and cup visits to The Emirates. They are 15/4 to break the 3 in a row cycle.

Despite their shock home opening defeat to West Ham, Arsenal bounced back well against Crystal Palace and are likely to be well backed at 3/4 for the 3 points.