Angus “Statto” Loughran – Premier League Stats & Analysis
The odds on Leicester City against Manchester United being a top of the table clash at the start of the season would have been huge as Leicester were the best backed team in the league for relegation!
Leicester v Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm
Jamie Vardy bids to beat Ruud Van Nistelrooy who scored in 10 Premier League games in a row with an 11th on Saturday evening and is 6/4 to do so.
Leicester City are still being written off as realistic contenders for a Champions League place let alone a title push but were they to beat Man United on Saturday night, and they are 21/10 to do so, things would certainly change. United had beaten Leicester 10 times in a row going into this fixture last season and when they were leading 2-0 and 3-1, looked set to make it 11.
Although, in one of the season’s most remarkable games, Leicester won 5-3. However, their form slumped after and a year ago they were were bottom of the table! United played some sparkling football in that match last season but have changed to becoming negative. But, last weekend at Watford when they were pegged back to 1-1 late on, a spark was lit and they got a dramatic late winner for the first time since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson.
5/4 on a United win would have looked an amazing price 12 months ago and it is amazing to think they go into this fixture odds against and party poopers! It is a price that cannot be ignored with their record in this fixture in a game shown live on Sky Sports at 5:30 on Saturday night.
Aston Villa v Watford, Saturday 3pm
Elsewhere on Saturday in the 3pm kick offs there are some very important matches none more so than at Villa Park where Aston Villa really need 3 points to avoid being totally tailed off in The Premier League before the start of December.
They have a great record against Watford winning 6 of the last 8 in all competitions.
With The Hornets failing to score in the last 4 and at 13/8, this looks worth taking a chance on to kick start their season under new boss Remi Garde. It might also be worth a dabble at 31/10 on Villa to win to nil!
Bournemouth v Everton, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth face Everton for the first time in a league fixture with the Toffees an attractive 6/4 to make it 4 wins in 4 against The Cherries, having won all 3 previous cup encounters.
Bournemouth are still smarting from failure to beat Swansea last weekend having led 2-0 and the bet that stands out here as great value is Everton to win from behind at a huge 11/1. Bournemouth have gotten off to a flyer several times this season and not been able to hold onto their advantage.
Manchester City v Southampton, Saturday 3pm
Manchester City are 40/85 to bounce back against Southampton after last week’s horror home defeat by Liverpool and The Saints have only won one of their last 8 against City. Raheem Sterling has netted in 3 of his last 5 matches against Southampton and will be well supported here at Evens to score at any time.
Sunderland v Stoke, Saturday 3pm
Sunderland gained a huge 3 points with a late win at Crystal Palace on Monday. I am not expecting a thriller on Saturday against Stoke in a fixture the home side have a decent recent record in with only one defeat in last 8. No Goalscorer at 7/1 stands out in a match which has every chance of being last on Match of The Day on Saturday night.
You won’t hear many complaints from Sunderland fans though as Big Sam is turning things round at the Stadium of Light. 11/5 the draw is not a bet I would put you off here and one which looks the favourite outcome.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Sunday 12pm
A huge game to start a long afternoon of Premier League action on Sunday sees Tottenham face Chelsea. To most Spurs fans it would be unthinkable to beat Chelsea twice in a calendar year at White Hart Lane after 9 games against The Blues without a win, but this Spurs team have not lost since a narrow defeat at Old Trafford on the opening day and are playing some wonderful football.
They will be heavily backed at 7/5 here despite their long journey in the Europa League on Thursday. Few who were involved in that match will play on Sunday. Harry Kane is on fire and is 13/10 to score at anytime and 12/5 to score in a Spurs win which will both appeal to the home fans.
I feel Tottenham may just have caught Chelsea at a bad time as they ground out a big win against Norwich last week and in Israel on Tuesday. It is a ground which brings out the best in Chelsea with the exception of New Year’s Day and at 19/10 they look over the odds. Eden Hazard has a great record v Tottenham and is over the odds at 23/10 to score at anytime while Chelsea fans will also like Hazard at 17/4 to score and Chelsea to win.
West Ham v West Brom, Sunday 2.05pm
West Ham v West Brom has produced 6 draws in the last 9 meetings including 4 of the last 5 at Upton Park.
Purely on this basis 12/5 is a huge price on a draw on Sunday. West Ham have been impossible to predict this season both home and away so expect the unexpected here! A WBA win is least likely at 3/1 but you have been warned!
Liverpool v Swansea, Sunday 4.15pm
Liverpool produced the season’s best performance in trouncing Man City last weekend and will be most people’s bankers even at 1/2 at home to Swansea who look out of sorts and have only one win in their last 9 matches.
Liverpool have won 5 of their last 7 and drawn the other two in all recent matches against The Swans and for those not wishing to lump on at 1/2, they may consider 13/10 on Liverpool leading at Half-Time/Full-Time at a price I had to double check it looked so big!
it is often said if a price is too big there must be a reason and maybe here there is but it is one I have found impossible to resist so good luck!
Norwich v Arsenal, Sunday 4.15pm
Norwich are 9/2 to cause a shock against Arsenal but have lost 7 of their last 9 games against The Gunners and prior to last weekend’s shock loss at WBA, the North London side have had a really decent run on the road.
Norwich may start well and although Arsenal should win, 4/7 is plenty short enough but 8\1 to win from behind is huge and well worth a punt. It was great to see Aaron Ramsay return last week and he has a decent record against Norwich. He is 13/8 to score anytime which is a decent bet but wait on team news for this bet.
*Prices correct at time of publication