Gosden To Extend Cambridgeshire Record Via Cornrow


Outright Betting

The first leg of the “Autumn Double” via the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday (3.50), where a whopping 35 runners go to post in one

…of the most mouth-watering handicap of the season.

John Gosden
One of the biggest pointers in finding Saturday’s comes via trainer John Gosden, who has won this race twice since 2004 and could extend that record with Cornrow (7/1).

This unexposed 4yo has won three of his five career runs, including a 1m handicap at Haydock last month (good),

…prior to staying on strongly in a valuable 7f handicap at Ascot last time (good to firm). The step back to 7f wasn’t ideal that day as he is related to a number of 1m1f winners, which is the same trip he tackles on Saturday.

Another 4yo with a likeable profile is Luca Cumani’s Velox (10/1), who won a valuable 1m handicap at Sandown in July (1m, good to firm), and served notice last time that he remains in form. Indeed, Velox was beaten just 2l when third in a 1m handicap at Doncatser a fortnight ago, staying on at the finish, and having been runner-up twice over 1m2f last term, Saturday’s trip should be ideal.

Previous Winners
Last year’s winner, Educate (14/1), has more to do from top weight of 9st10lb having triumphed here from a 6lb lower mark 12 months, though you couldn’t rule him out of the places. Another former winner, Bronze Angel (20/1), who won this race in 2012, is only 4lb higher, but has the services of a good apprentice in Louis Steward, who takes of another 5lb. Steward was aboard when the pair were over 1l ahead of Velox at Doncaster last time, and Bronze Angel could well be thereabouts once more.

Another who looks primed to go well is William Haggas’ Queensberry Rules (16/1), who arrives having won a valuable 1m2f handicap at York’s Ebor Meeting last month (good). The cheekpieces worked the oracle that day, and with Ryan Moore booked for the weekend he will be fancied, though it’s worth noting that last time out winners have a poor record in the race at 1-51 since 2004.

Classic Generation
Let’s not forget the 3yo’s, though, who won three of the last 10 Cambridgeshire’s – a fact that bodes well for Hugo Palmer’s Extremity (16/1), who won two 1m handicaps during his last three runs (soft and firm) and is related to a couple of middle-distance/staying winners. He looks sure to improve over this extra furlong.

Elsewhere, Ralph Beckett’s Niceofyoutotellme (16/1), won a valuable handicap over this C&D back in May, prior to an unlucky run when ninth in the Royal Hunt Cup (1m, good to firm). He made late gains that day, as he did when last seen over 1m2f at Goodwood in July, and is still in the “improving” category from a nice weight off 8st10lb – for the record, 9 of the last 10 winners carried 8st7lb to 9st2lb. Here are some more key pointers…

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Cambridgeshire winners…

10 were 3-6yo’s – others were 0-37
10 had 3-25 handicap runs – others were 0-79
9 carried 8st7lb to 9st2lb
9 made the top three during last 3 runs – others were 1-70
9 won 1-4 handicaps – others were 1-100
9 were non-winners last time – last time out winners were 1-51
8 ran in a class 2 race race last time – others were 2-101
7 dropped in trip from last time (5%) – others were 3-150 (2%)
J Gosden won it twice; W Haggas was 0-11, M Johnston was 0-12

Recommended Bets
A ferociously competitive affair, but one in which John Gosden can land a third Cambridgshire since 2004 with Cornrow, who is lightly raced for this stage of the season and has stacks of improvement to come.