Intilaaq The Rose Of Lancaster

Value-seekers will be licking their lips when looking for the winner of Haydock’s Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes on Saturday (2.55), as only two of the last 10 favourites of this race won.

Intilaaq To Overcome Favourites Hoodoo?
It’s a fact that punters will need to remember before making their final selection, as it may count against the likes of Roger Varian’s Intilaaq who comes here with a career record of 2-4.

This 3yo recorded a career best when winning a Listed event at Newbury last month (1m2f, good to firm), and certainly deserves a step up in class.

It’s interesting to note, however, that most winners of this race never won last time out…

Trends Summary
Of the last 10 Rose of Lancaster winners…

10 were 3-5yo’s
10 were males
9 ran 2-4 times during the last 90 days
9 were unraced at Haydock
9 never won a Group 3
9 were beaten 1l or more last time
8 arrived via Newbury, Sandown or York last time

Can Carpenter Do The Job?
The above stats also show that a previous Group 3 wasn’t necessary, though Rod Millman’s 4yo, Master Carpenter, won such a race in France last term and arrives in good form having won the John Smith’s Cup at York (1m2f, good). He has been there and done it, so doesn’t have it to prove, but may just lack the improvement of Intilaaq.

Johnston’s Fighting Needs Fire
Another winner of a decent 1m2f handicap is Mark Johnston’s Fire Fighting who won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar (1m2f, good to firm) in May, though he has been held in Listed company and needs to improve.

Out Of Form?
The 7yo, Fattsota, will also need to show more than when last of four in Listed company at Sandown a month ago (1m2f, good to firm). He last won a handicap over 1m4f in April, and the fact four of his last five victories came at 1m4f, suggests he may find Saturday’s step back a touch sharp.

Also successful in handicap class was Andrew Balding’s Collaboration who rattled up a hat-trick in such company during the spring, prior to flopping last time out. It’s possible this 4yo has gone off the boil, and a step up in class makes life even tougher.

Recommended Bets
Plenty of question marks surround several of these, and while the stats count against Intilaaq, he at least arrives in decent form and has the ability to race from the front, which could be a huge asset in this five-runner field made up mostly of patiently-ridden types.