Inter Milan v AC Milan Prediction, Preview & Betting Odds – Champions League
We have an Inter Milan v AC Milan prediction and preview plus betting odds for you ahead of Tuesday’s massive Champions League clash.
Inter Milan v AC Milan Match Info
Venue: The San Siro, Milan
When? 8.00 pm, Tuesday the 15th of May.
What Channel? RTÉ 2 and BT Sport 1 HD (Sky channel 430)
Inter Milan v AC Milan Odds
Following their 0-2 first leg victory Inter Milan are favourites to win the second leg also and can be gotten at 20/21.
AC Milan can be at 14/5 while the draw can currently be gotten at 9/4.
Interestingly 75% (at the time of writing, Monday morning the 15th of May) are on an Inter Milan which is over double the total of 36% before the first leg. 17% of betters are backing the draw with just 8% backing AC Milan to win.
The Form – Inter Milan v AC Milan
Inter Milan’s Form
Inter Milan were drawn in what many people saw as the “Group of Death” with Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Viktoria Plzeň but managed to qualify from their group ahead of Barcelona and Plzeň as runners-up with a record of three wins, one draw and two defeats scoring ten goals and conceding seven.
They were handed a favourable Round of 16 tie versus Porto who they overcame 1-0 on aggregate after winning the first leg at home 1-0 and completing the job with a 0-0 draw away from home in the second leg.
They were drawn against another Portuguese opponent in Benfica for the Quarterfinal. Inter would go on to win the first leg in Portugal 2-0 and secure their Semi-Final place with an entertaining 3-3 draw in the second leg.
In the first leg, they defeated AC Milan in a comprehensive 0-2 victory where they created an XG of 2.0 to their Milan rivals 0.9 and now have one foot firmly stepped into the final.
In Serie A they are currently third on 66-points following their 4-2 victory against Sassuolo at the weekend making it five wins in their last five matches.
In the Coppa Italia, they are in the final and will face Fiorentina on the 24th of May. They won the Suppercoppa Italiana Final beating AC Milan 0-3 in the final. They have a record of three wins and one defeat in their four head-to-head games this season.
AC Milan’s Form
AC Milan were drawn in a group which included Chelsea, Red Bull Salzburg and Dynamo Zagreb where they had three wins, one draw and two defeats scoring twelve goals and conceding seven. At the end of the group stages, they finished with 10 points which was good enough for second, three points behind Chelsea.
In the Round of 16, they were given the assignment of taking on Tottenham. They did just enough to advance past the London club with a narrow first-leg win at home 1-0 before drawing 0-0 away from home.
Sefano Pioli’s side have already knocked out Italian opposition in the tournament when they got the better of a heavily fancied Napoli in the Quarter-Final. They overcame the odds to beat them 1-0 in the first leg and draw 1-1 away in the second leg to earn their place in the Semi-Final.
In the first leg, they were defeated 0-2 by Inter and will need a big performance on Tuesday to continue their journey in a competition they have such a rich history in.
In the Serie A, they are currently fifth with 61 points after 35 matches played five points behind Inter in third. In the Coppa Italia, they were knocked out by Torino in the Round of 16 after extra time. They also lost in the Suppercoppa Italiana Final to Inter which means they have a record of three defeats and just one win in their four matches this season.
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Inter Milan v AC Milan Preview
Inter Milan’s Attack
Inter in the first leg operated in a 3-5-2 formation with the relentless Lautaro Martinez that we earmarked in our first leg preview as key proving crucial again with him running the AC Milan defence ragged supporting the veteran striker Edin Džeko (37) in the attack by doing the running for both.
However, it was an eleven-minute blitz at the start of the game from Džeko in the eighth minute and Mkhitaryan in the eleventh that proved enough to earn them the victory 0-2 from an XG of 2.0 proving they were in clinical form after only having the ball 42.7% of the time.
At the weekend they continued their clinical edge beating Sassuolo 4-2 from an XG of 1.4 with Lukaku scoring a double, an own goal and a Martinez goal.
AC Milan’s Defence
AC Milan entered this tie with a reputation of a strong defence, throughout the earlier rounds of the Champions League. However, despite dominating the ball in the first leg they proved to be hugely vulnerable and susceptible to the Inter counter and particularly the Martinez press.
This was despite the fact they played in a 4-2-3-1 with two supporting midfielders, Milan just did not turn up. They will need to if they have any hopes of getting out of this tie successfully. At the weekend they lost 2-0 to Spezia from an XG of 1.8.
Maignan in goal who has been praised by many throughout this competition as one of the best in the world will need a big night on Tuesday.
AC Milan’s Attack
AC Milan have an average attack in their Champions League matches they have 14 goals from 11 matches an average of 1.27 goals per game and in the first leg they could only create an XG of 0.9 despite having 57.% of possession and during the weekend defeat they again only created an XG of 1.0.
Without Rafael Leão they offer very little attacking threat and dynamism as evidenced by the fact they have lost all four of their games this season that he has not featured in.
Whether he is fit for tomorrow night is unclear, but even a half-fit Leão will be crucial if they are to stand any chance of getting out of this tie successfully.
Inter Milan’s Defence
Inter Milan in their last two matches conceded 0 goals from a Milan XG of 0.9 in the first leg and 2 goals from an XG of 2.3 against Sassuolo at the weekend suggesting they have a solid albeit unspectacular defence.
They line up in a 3-5-2 in possession, but this can become tough to break down 5-3-2 out of possession with wing-back Dumfries and Dimarco dropping back.
This combined with the tenacious number 8 Barella allows them stability especially as we outlined, they were susceptible defensively to counter-attacks before the first leg. But with AC Milan dominating the ball in the first leg, this was avoided.
Inter Milan v AC Milan
Prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 AC Milan
Inter proved far too good for AC Milan in the first leg and have won three out of four games between the sides this season. I’m expecting them to continue that run, booking their place in the final as they look to win the trophy for the first time since their success in 2010.
Best Bet: Inter Milan 2-0 AC Milan 8/1
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