Mark O’Haires Capital One Cup Tips – Wednesday’s MatchesStats
Spurs v Arsenal
The first North London derby of the season takes centre stage on Wednesday night as Tottenham take on Arsenal in the third round of the Capital One Cup.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Wednesday 23rd September 2015, 19.45, Sky Sports 1
The two teams arrive at White Hart Lane in vastly different mind-sets with Spurs enjoying a three-match winning streak and the Gunners suffering successive defeats.
Spurs began their campaign slowly but following success over Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Qarabag, Mauricio Pochettino’s troops appear to finally have found their feet. The club was buoyed by the return of Christian Eriksen at the weekend whilst new attacking forward Heung-Min Son has made a positive impact.
Arsenal haven’t made it past the quarter-finals of the Capital One Cup since finishing runners up in 2011 and are still reeling from their Champions League defeat in Zagreb on top of Saturday’s London derby defeat at Stamford Bridge. Arsene Wenger’s visitors have seen Olivier Giroud, Gabriel and Santi Cazorla all sent off and they’ll need to keep their discipline on Wednesday evening.
The North London derby has witnessed 30 yellow cards in the last five meetings and although the fixture has undoubtedly been one of the most exciting in recent times, the last couple of seasons it’s become a slightly tamer affair. Four of those five meetings have featured fewer than three goals, the exception being Spurs’ 2-1 home win in the league last season.
Spurs have actually now bagged four wins from their last six Premier League matches against their bitter rivals from across town and their previous eight when entertaining the Gunners in all competitions reads W4-D2-L2. Go back further and the hosts have W5-D5-L3 in the North London derby at White Hart Lane.
Immediately Tottenham look a little overpriced at 2/1 but the Draw No Bet angle offers plenty of value at 6/5 with the added insurance of having the draw onside.
Spurs have been beaten just once in seven League Cup ties on home soil
…and Pochettino picked a full strength side for their Capital One Cup loss at Chelsea last season, so we should expect something similar here.
Wenger’s used this tournament as an opportunity for his squad players and to blood his youngsters and again, a degree of rotation should be expected from Arsenal. That should certainly aid our angle but it’s also worth having a wee poke on a low-scoring encounter.
Under 2.5 Goals has been marked up at even-money – it’s proven profitable in four of the last five head-to-heads whilst five of Spurs’ seven games this term have also failed to break the two-goal barrier. Pochettino’s men have kept clean sheets in three of their last four and it’s also worth noting that one team has failed to score in six of Arsenal’s eight matches, with all six also falling below the 2.5 goals line.
Tottenham Draw No Bet @ 6/5
Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens
Manchester United v Ipswich, Wednesday 23rd September, 20.00
The League Cup isn’t a priority for Manchester United and with the Red Devils up in second in the Premier League and already involved in Champions League commitments, it’s hard to see Louis Van Gaal going all out on Wednesday night.
Although Man Utd have only been eliminated from the FA Cup once by lower league opposition in the past 30 years, this has happened eight times in that time in the League Cup, including three times in the past seven seasons. Remember MK Dons last year?
Van Gaal oversaw a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of the Dons and whilst a repeat is far from likely this midweek, it’s worth getting with Ipswich on the handicap with Town available at 11/5 with a +1 start.
United have won just one of their last six home games in this competition by more than one goal despite coming out on top in 12 of their past 13 Capital One Cup fixtures at Old Trafford. Mick McCarthy’s travellers have only lost twice in 2015/16 and held Southampton to a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup back in January.
Ipswich +1 Handicap @ 11/5
*Prices correct at time of publication